* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LAURA AL132020 08/27/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 130 129 124 118 109 95 86 75 62 55 45 29 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 130 90 62 47 38 30 28 28 26 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 130 90 61 46 37 30 28 28 34 38 37 31 27 25 27 29 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 23 24 25 19 20 12 18 28 38 75 74 87 74 64 45 32 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 3 0 -2 6 4 1 1 1 -14 -12 -3 -1 -3 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 264 268 257 255 276 295 264 243 230 225 224 234 225 241 237 240 260 SST (C) 30.5 31.4 31.1 30.9 29.7 29.7 29.7 28.7 24.0 19.3 16.7 12.6 12.7 12.1 11.8 12.2 12.5 POT. INT. (KT) 173 173 173 172 164 166 168 153 105 84 78 71 69 66 65 66 67 ADJ. POT. INT. 163 173 171 162 138 142 150 142 98 80 74 69 66 63 63 64 64 200 MB T (C) -49.7 -49.6 -49.6 -49.6 -50.0 -50.8 -51.9 -52.1 -51.9 -50.6 -50.3 -50.0 -49.6 -49.7 -49.8 -50.9 -52.6 200 MB VXT (C) 1.3 1.5 1.4 1.2 1.3 0.6 0.8 0.5 0.0 0.7 2.8 1.9 1.2 0.3 1.2 1.2 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 11 12 7 11 4 8 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 57 60 58 58 57 63 64 56 45 44 51 51 47 49 54 45 39 MODEL VTX (KT) 26 27 26 23 19 14 13 11 11 16 19 16 13 11 9 7 3 850 MB ENV VOR -59 -63 -42 -41 -78 23 31 78 140 173 185 156 146 132 124 97 69 200 MB DIV 54 41 34 30 25 34 53 28 45 65 64 43 10 5 -19 -39 -27 700-850 TADV 27 11 11 14 26 0 25 16 -51 41 -78 -139 -83 -75 -48 -35 -13 LAND (KM) -2 -168 -336 -446 -547 -658 -679 -276 153 154 14 373 878 1157 1327 1430 1133 LAT (DEG N) 29.8 31.3 32.8 34.0 35.1 36.5 37.5 38.1 39.8 43.1 47.4 50.9 53.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 93.3 93.1 92.9 92.4 91.9 89.7 85.2 78.9 71.1 63.4 55.8 48.9 42.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 15 14 12 11 15 22 28 32 34 32 25 19 11 10 13 14 HEAT CONTENT 31 7 6 6 4 5 5 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 13 CX,CY: -1/ 13 T-12 MAX WIND: 120 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 644 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 2. -3. -12. -25. -37. -52. -64. -74. -83. -92. -98.-102.-103. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -5. -11. -16. -19. -20. -18. -15. -15. -17. -19. -21. -22. -19. -17. -19. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 11. 12. 13. 13. 13. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -9. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -3. -6. -11. -15. -21. -23. -18. -16. -20. -25. -27. -28. -30. -32. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -6. -12. -21. -35. -44. -55. -68. -75. -85.-101.-111.-115.-119.-124.-134. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 130. LAT, LON: 29.8 93.3 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132020 LAURA 08/27/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 4.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.28 0.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.07 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.89 2.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 130.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.10 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.43 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 647.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.26 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 31.4 27.5 to 139.6 0.04 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 36.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.31 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.7% 12.2% 10.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.5% 1.0% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 6.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.8% 4.4% 3.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 36.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132020 LAURA 08/27/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132020 LAURA 08/27/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 130 90 62 47 38 30 28 28 26 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 130 129 101 86 77 69 67 67 65 57 39 39 39 39 39 39 39 12HR AGO 130 127 126 111 102 94 92 92 90 82 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 6HR AGO 130 124 121 120 111 103 101 101 99 91 73 73 73 73 73 73 73 NOW 130 121 115 112 111 103 101 101 99 91 73 73 73 73 73 73 73 IN 6HR 130 90 81 75 72 68 66 66 64 56 38 38 38 38 38 38 38 IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT