* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LAURA AL132020 08/27/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 130 132 128 121 114 99 88 78 68 57 44 28 21 19 20 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 130 114 79 56 43 32 29 28 31 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 130 136 84 58 44 32 28 28 28 36 37 33 27 26 28 31 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 15 25 25 22 18 14 15 22 35 57 85 91 82 70 48 31 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 -1 4 -1 2 7 1 1 4 -9 -9 -6 -1 4 -2 1 SHEAR DIR 254 265 266 254 249 287 269 256 239 231 230 226 228 237 235 238 249 SST (C) 29.9 30.6 31.4 31.2 31.0 29.6 29.6 28.1 25.1 19.2 18.9 14.2 13.3 11.8 11.6 11.7 12.7 POT. INT. (KT) 169 173 173 173 172 163 165 143 112 84 83 74 71 66 64 66 68 ADJ. POT. INT. 152 165 173 172 164 139 144 131 104 79 78 71 68 63 62 64 66 200 MB T (C) -49.6 -49.7 -49.2 -49.4 -49.4 -50.3 -51.3 -52.0 -52.1 -51.9 -50.5 -50.4 -49.5 -48.9 -48.5 -48.7 -50.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 1.2 1.6 1.8 1.4 0.9 0.7 0.2 0.2 1.0 0.0 0.6 0.5 0.6 1.8 2.1 1.5 TH_E DEV (C) 12 9 8 11 12 5 10 4 6 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 57 57 61 58 58 60 66 66 54 49 50 52 52 50 53 51 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 27 27 27 25 22 17 12 10 11 13 15 13 12 12 14 13 10 850 MB ENV VOR -25 -64 -65 -39 -39 -31 34 55 116 180 156 166 143 172 147 149 106 200 MB DIV 54 47 30 38 38 26 66 19 53 63 53 43 23 9 -6 -10 -23 700-850 TADV 13 28 12 11 21 13 44 7 -5 0 5 -102 -82 -53 -34 -39 -53 LAND (KM) 130 -17 -168 -313 -458 -620 -718 -516 11 213 60 80 698 983 1109 1348 1276 LAT (DEG N) 28.5 29.9 31.3 32.6 33.9 35.9 37.2 37.7 38.9 41.5 45.4 49.3 52.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 93.0 93.1 93.1 93.0 92.9 91.2 87.7 82.2 74.8 67.4 59.8 52.4 45.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 14 13 13 12 14 19 26 30 32 33 30 22 11 8 14 17 HEAT CONTENT 39 16 7 6 6 4 4 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 13 CX,CY: -3/ 12 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 615 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 2. 4. 3. -3. -12. -24. -35. -48. -60. -70. -79. -88. -94. -99.-100. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -4. -10. -15. -18. -20. -17. -13. -12. -12. -16. -19. -21. -19. -18. -19. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 9. 10. 12. 12. 13. 13. PERSISTENCE 5. 5. 3. 1. 0. 1. 2. -0. -0. -4. -6. -3. -2. -1. -2. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. -2. -4. -9. -17. -22. -24. -23. -21. -24. -27. -26. -22. -23. -25. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. -2. -9. -16. -31. -42. -52. -62. -73. -86.-102.-109.-111.-110.-115.-127. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 130. LAT, LON: 28.5 93.0 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132020 LAURA 08/27/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 30.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.96 7.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.33 1.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.10 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.92 3.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 130.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.10 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.9 to -2.9 0.37 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 536.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.38 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 35.2 27.5 to 139.6 0.07 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.33 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 19.2% 18.9% 14.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 13.6% 4.1% 2.9% 1.7% 0.3% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 28.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 20.3% 7.7% 5.9% 0.6% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 21.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132020 LAURA 08/27/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132020 LAURA 08/27/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 43 0( 43) 0( 43) 0( 43) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 45 0( 45) 0( 45) 0( 45) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 130 114 79 56 43 32 29 28 31 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 130 129 94 71 58 47 44 43 46 34 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 12HR AGO 130 127 126 103 90 79 76 75 78 66 47 47 47 47 47 47 47 6HR AGO 130 124 121 120 107 96 93 92 95 83 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 NOW 130 121 115 112 111 100 97 96 99 87 68 68 68 68 68 68 68 IN 6HR 130 114 105 99 96 91 88 87 90 78 59 59 59 59 59 59 59 IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT