* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LAURA AL132020 08/26/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 120 124 120 115 108 96 86 79 69 58 46 36 36 36 32 26 19 V (KT) LAND 120 124 120 82 58 37 30 28 28 27 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 120 126 125 88 60 37 30 28 28 31 33 32 32 30 29 30 33 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 9 17 25 26 22 19 12 20 33 38 53 85 76 60 47 18 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 2 3 0 3 -2 6 7 6 -2 5 -10 -3 3 1 -2 1 SHEAR DIR 275 261 270 270 265 278 283 261 258 244 215 212 223 226 213 214 137 SST (C) 30.0 29.9 30.3 31.4 31.5 30.7 29.7 29.8 28.1 24.8 20.4 18.4 13.8 13.6 13.2 12.3 12.2 POT. INT. (KT) 171 169 172 173 173 172 165 169 143 110 88 82 72 68 67 68 69 ADJ. POT. INT. 154 150 157 173 173 157 140 150 131 102 83 77 69 65 64 66 67 200 MB T (C) -50.0 -49.7 -49.7 -49.3 -49.6 -49.9 -50.7 -51.8 -52.2 -52.2 -51.9 -50.7 -49.6 -49.0 -48.7 -49.2 -50.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.8 1.3 1.4 1.6 1.2 0.6 0.9 0.4 0.2 0.2 -0.3 -0.2 0.0 1.2 0.6 2.9 TH_E DEV (C) 11 12 10 8 11 7 11 5 10 5 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 61 59 58 61 59 55 61 62 52 41 42 51 55 54 54 50 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 27 25 25 26 23 17 14 13 11 8 7 8 13 15 14 10 11 850 MB ENV VOR 0 -23 -55 -61 -34 -71 19 35 63 133 151 152 180 153 138 126 127 200 MB DIV 50 36 52 32 34 29 25 49 18 23 60 70 42 -10 -15 -27 -28 700-850 TADV 0 12 29 14 13 23 -4 41 45 -56 -15 -214 -99 -36 -25 -7 -2 LAND (KM) 250 142 27 -122 -271 -542 -672 -750 -392 92 226 128 151 562 744 1039 1455 LAT (DEG N) 27.3 28.4 29.5 30.9 32.2 34.7 36.4 37.4 37.4 38.6 41.5 45.4 50.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 92.5 93.1 93.6 93.6 93.7 92.9 90.9 86.7 80.8 73.9 66.0 58.5 51.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 13 13 13 12 14 20 25 30 33 33 25 13 11 17 20 HEAT CONTENT 39 38 44 7 7 6 4 5 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 13 CX,CY: -9/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 652 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 2. 3. 4. 1. -7. -16. -24. -33. -42. -50. -59. -67. -74. -79. -81. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -7. -12. -15. -17. -14. -11. -9. -9. -9. -14. -16. -17. -16. -17. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 9. 10. 11. 11. 10. PERSISTENCE 5. 5. 3. 2. 1. 1. 2. 0. -0. -3. -5. -3. -2. -1. -1. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -7. -7. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -3. -9. -15. -19. -24. -30. -33. -32. -26. -22. -23. -26. -25. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 0. -5. -12. -24. -34. -41. -51. -62. -74. -84. -84. -84. -88. -94.-101. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 120. LAT, LON: 27.3 92.5 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132020 LAURA 08/26/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 30.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.96 8.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.36 1.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 27.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.18 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.89 3.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 120.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.23 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.9 to -2.9 0.35 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 426.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.49 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 41.3 27.5 to 139.6 0.12 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 40.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.33 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.97 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 31% is 6.3 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 31.4% 21.0% 17.2% 12.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 23.7% 13.0% 9.4% 10.1% 3.0% 2.1% 0.7% 0.0% Bayesian: 42.2% 1.4% 1.2% 1.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 32.4% 11.8% 9.3% 8.2% 1.1% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132020 LAURA 08/26/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132020 LAURA 08/26/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 33 33( 55) 0( 55) 0( 55) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 65 5( 67) 0( 67) 0( 67) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 120 124 120 82 58 37 30 28 28 27 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 120 119 115 77 53 32 25 23 23 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 120 117 116 78 54 33 26 24 24 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 120 114 111 110 86 65 58 56 56 55 44 28 28 28 28 28 28 NOW 120 111 105 102 101 80 73 71 71 70 59 43 43 43 43 43 43 IN 6HR 120 124 115 109 106 98 91 89 89 88 77 61 61 61 61 61 61 IN 12HR 120 124 120 111 105 101 94 92 92 91 80 64 64 64 64 64 64