* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LAURA AL132020 08/26/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 90 96 99 99 96 89 81 76 71 65 63 57 49 40 30 21 N/A V (KT) LAND 90 96 99 99 84 46 33 29 28 28 31 25 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 90 98 102 104 102 48 33 29 28 28 32 34 34 31 30 28 26 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 11 14 10 18 26 22 22 12 21 28 37 45 71 88 92 84 39 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 1 2 2 3 -1 5 7 5 -4 7 -4 -12 -10 -15 -4 SHEAR DIR 303 307 289 259 264 256 277 268 267 249 255 216 224 221 229 223 228 SST (C) 30.3 30.0 29.9 30.0 30.8 31.6 30.8 29.8 29.7 28.0 25.0 23.7 19.5 16.9 12.8 12.4 10.8 POT. INT. (KT) 173 171 169 171 172 172 172 167 167 142 111 101 83 77 71 69 67 ADJ. POT. INT. 165 157 153 154 167 172 159 140 147 130 101 92 78 73 69 67 65 200 MB T (C) -50.6 -50.4 -49.9 -49.5 -49.4 -49.4 -49.9 -50.6 -51.7 -52.2 -52.4 -52.2 -51.5 -51.1 -51.3 -50.4 -50.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.5 0.7 1.1 1.4 1.6 1.4 0.8 1.1 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 11 13 10 11 7 11 5 9 5 4 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 55 60 62 58 57 59 57 60 62 56 46 42 46 49 56 60 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 24 27 27 27 26 22 17 14 12 10 11 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 18 3 0 -27 -70 -35 -95 33 25 72 128 157 154 150 116 126 164 200 MB DIV 35 51 44 31 26 37 13 36 52 31 44 57 58 80 68 50 49 700-850 TADV 2 -4 2 14 27 0 29 6 44 60 -22 -6 -54 -37 -9 0 -2 LAND (KM) 389 298 239 116 -17 -296 -568 -708 -731 -462 49 231 127 25 333 796 1076 LAT (DEG N) 25.6 26.5 27.4 28.7 29.9 32.4 34.9 36.7 37.3 37.7 38.4 40.3 43.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 90.2 91.4 92.5 93.1 93.6 93.9 93.1 91.2 87.4 81.5 74.5 67.9 62.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 13 13 13 13 12 13 19 26 27 27 28 28 25 20 17 HEAT CONTENT 70 52 38 45 14 7 6 5 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 14 CX,CY: -11/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 634 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 2. 3. 5. 6. 5. 3. -0. -3. -6. -9. -12. -17. -23. -29. -33. -37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -10. -7. -6. -5. -7. -9. -14. -22. -30. -39. -44. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 3. 3. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -8. -7. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 1. 1. -2. -9. -15. -19. -23. -23. -25. -25. -24. -24. -23. -22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 6. 9. 9. 6. -1. -9. -14. -19. -25. -27. -33. -41. -50. -60. -69. -77. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 25.6 90.2 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132020 LAURA 08/26/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.84 7.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.51 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 43.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.29 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.72 2.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.62 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.6 2.9 to -2.9 0.22 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 439.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.48 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 69.2 27.5 to 139.6 0.37 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.31 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 22% is 4.5 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 4.5 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 22.3% 21.2% 15.6% 13.1% 11.3% 11.4% 8.5% 0.0% Logistic: 15.7% 25.5% 17.7% 22.9% 12.1% 15.6% 3.9% 0.1% Bayesian: 35.7% 11.8% 3.2% 1.4% 0.1% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 24.6% 19.5% 12.2% 12.5% 7.9% 9.1% 4.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 34.0% 1.0% 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132020 LAURA 08/26/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132020 LAURA 08/26/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 12 21( 30) 0( 30) 0( 30) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 2 9( 11) 0( 11) 0( 11) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 90 96 99 99 84 46 33 29 28 28 31 25 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 90 89 92 92 77 39 26 22 21 21 24 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 90 87 86 86 71 33 20 16 15 15 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 90 84 81 80 65 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW 90 81 75 72 71 33 20 16 15 15 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 90 96 87 81 78 62 49 45 44 44 47 41 33 16 16 16 16 IN 12HR 90 96 99 90 84 80 67 63 62 62 65 59 51 34 34 34 34