* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LAURA AL132020 08/26/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 80 85 89 90 90 84 76 68 63 57 48 43 40 28 20 N/A V (KT) LAND 75 80 85 89 90 58 37 30 28 28 29 25 20 16 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 75 80 85 88 90 60 37 30 28 28 29 33 34 35 33 31 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 3 13 14 12 17 24 19 12 20 25 36 45 66 81 86 67 36 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 0 1 1 2 0 0 4 8 1 3 0 -7 -8 -14 -10 -4 SHEAR DIR 333 305 306 272 257 265 255 289 255 256 248 226 213 218 237 246 256 SST (C) 30.2 30.3 30.0 29.8 30.0 31.6 31.1 29.8 29.8 28.4 27.9 22.0 19.3 16.9 11.9 12.7 11.2 POT. INT. (KT) 173 172 171 167 171 172 172 167 169 147 141 93 83 77 70 69 67 ADJ. POT. INT. 163 162 156 152 152 172 167 142 148 131 128 86 78 73 68 66 64 200 MB T (C) -50.4 -50.7 -50.5 -50.0 -49.5 -49.2 -49.5 -50.2 -51.1 -52.6 -52.5 -52.6 -52.0 -52.7 -52.6 -53.2 -53.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.7 1.0 1.6 1.2 1.2 0.6 0.3 0.3 -0.5 0.2 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 12 11 10 12 13 9 12 4 11 4 6 2 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 56 56 59 61 58 60 57 59 62 60 51 50 56 56 47 47 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 23 23 26 26 25 26 20 15 11 10 9 7 9 14 14 15 14 850 MB ENV VOR 40 12 -3 -11 -31 -66 -51 -21 -3 57 150 197 156 112 92 105 101 200 MB DIV 35 32 42 47 27 35 41 1 43 25 47 57 66 97 45 8 21 700-850 TADV -9 -4 0 7 13 9 24 21 39 11 13 -76 -85 -26 -53 -59 -35 LAND (KM) 400 362 283 206 112 -139 -424 -632 -719 -632 -168 95 125 12 318 730 1023 LAT (DEG N) 25.1 25.9 26.6 27.7 28.7 31.0 33.6 35.8 37.2 38.3 39.1 40.8 43.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 88.9 90.0 91.1 92.1 93.1 93.7 93.4 92.3 88.5 83.3 77.0 70.0 62.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 12 13 14 12 12 12 13 19 23 26 29 30 29 24 18 15 HEAT CONTENT 63 65 52 35 45 7 6 5 5 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 15 CX,CY: -12/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 646 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 28.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. 1. -2. -7. -11. -16. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -0. -1. -1. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -5. -9. -16. -24. -34. -42. -46. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -5. -12. -20. -23. -25. -28. -26. -19. -19. -17. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. 5. 3. 1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 14. 15. 15. 9. 1. -7. -12. -18. -27. -32. -35. -47. -55. -62. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 25.1 88.9 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132020 LAURA 08/26/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 8.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.64 2.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 52.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.34 1.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.78 3.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.81 2.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.27 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 356.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.57 1.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 82.0 27.5 to 139.6 0.49 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 36.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.31 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 31% is 2.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 5.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 5.3 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 18.9% 31.1% 21.8% 19.5% 13.2% 12.6% 10.3% 10.3% Logistic: 14.6% 29.2% 21.6% 28.5% 16.2% 18.1% 6.1% 0.5% Bayesian: 14.3% 18.5% 5.1% 1.8% 0.3% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 15.9% 26.3% 16.2% 16.6% 9.9% 10.6% 5.5% 3.6% DTOPS: 25.0% 43.0% 24.0% 8.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132020 LAURA 08/26/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132020 LAURA 08/26/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 5 10( 15) 12( 25) 0( 25) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 2 3( 5) 2( 7) 0( 7) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 75 80 85 89 90 58 37 30 28 28 29 25 20 16 DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 75 74 79 83 84 52 31 24 22 22 23 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 75 72 71 75 76 44 23 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 75 69 66 65 66 34 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR 75 80 85 76 70 66 45 38 36 36 37 33 28 24 DIS DIS DIS