* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LAURA AL132020 08/25/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 69 73 77 81 86 87 83 75 69 67 63 70 63 52 38 28 V (KT) LAND 65 69 73 77 81 86 62 38 30 28 28 28 38 31 21 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 65 70 74 79 83 88 66 38 30 28 28 28 37 41 35 36 34 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 12 10 4 8 12 12 22 20 13 20 21 30 45 71 62 78 78 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 7 4 1 2 0 2 1 8 7 1 2 3 -11 -4 -11 -11 SHEAR DIR 3 30 33 328 321 260 261 256 278 258 245 238 240 216 221 236 242 SST (C) 29.9 30.4 30.3 30.3 30.2 29.8 31.5 31.1 29.8 29.8 29.0 28.3 23.7 19.7 16.4 12.2 13.0 POT. INT. (KT) 169 173 173 173 172 167 173 172 167 168 156 147 103 85 76 69 69 ADJ. POT. INT. 161 170 167 165 159 150 173 168 141 146 142 137 96 80 72 67 66 200 MB T (C) -51.1 -50.8 -50.4 -50.6 -50.5 -49.5 -49.2 -49.4 -50.3 -51.0 -52.1 -52.0 -52.0 -51.3 -51.3 -51.2 -50.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6 1.0 1.7 1.5 1.2 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.9 2.1 1.8 2.4 TH_E DEV (C) 11 12 11 11 10 12 9 13 4 11 5 7 3 1 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 53 55 56 57 61 60 59 54 58 63 62 53 50 50 55 49 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 22 23 23 24 25 26 26 22 17 13 13 12 21 22 23 20 21 850 MB ENV VOR 20 44 38 16 11 -19 -65 -51 -44 -9 48 116 204 192 194 137 154 200 MB DIV 20 42 40 36 31 13 26 21 11 58 27 62 60 71 79 53 40 700-850 TADV -5 0 -5 -3 0 11 7 25 20 46 17 33 32 12 -37 -35 -45 LAND (KM) 213 257 341 429 357 189 -116 -401 -603 -687 -579 -115 188 184 -36 348 706 LAT (DEG N) 23.3 23.9 24.5 25.3 26.0 28.0 30.8 33.4 35.6 36.9 37.3 38.3 40.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 86.3 87.7 89.1 90.4 91.6 93.2 93.6 93.3 92.0 88.7 83.5 76.7 68.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 14 14 12 13 13 13 13 17 24 30 32 32 28 20 16 HEAT CONTENT 49 62 59 72 61 36 7 6 5 5 4 3 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 574 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 28.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 11. 8. 4. 1. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -6. -14. -21. -30. -39. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 10. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 2. 2. 2. -3. -11. -17. -18. -21. -9. -7. -7. -10. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. 5. 3. 1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 12. 16. 21. 22. 18. 10. 4. 2. -2. 5. -2. -13. -27. -37. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 23.3 86.3 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132020 LAURA 08/25/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 6.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.76 2.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 60.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.40 1.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.37 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.94 2.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.41 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 394.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.53 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.2 27.5 to 139.6 0.64 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.29 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 31% is 2.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 5.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.8% 30.6% 17.6% 13.3% 12.5% 15.4% 13.4% 16.7% Logistic: 7.3% 26.6% 15.4% 11.9% 8.5% 23.0% 21.9% 4.3% Bayesian: 6.3% 21.2% 7.1% 0.8% 0.3% 5.0% 3.4% 0.0% Consensus: 7.5% 26.1% 13.4% 8.7% 7.1% 14.5% 12.9% 7.0% DTOPS: 26.0% 77.0% 49.0% 26.0% 5.0% 9.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132020 LAURA 08/25/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132020 LAURA 08/25/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 4( 6) 8( 13) 10( 22) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 65 69 73 77 81 86 62 38 30 28 28 28 38 31 21 DIS DIS 18HR AGO 65 64 68 72 76 81 57 33 25 23 23 23 33 26 16 DIS DIS 12HR AGO 65 62 61 65 69 74 50 26 18 16 16 16 26 19 DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 65 59 56 55 59 64 40 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT