* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LAURA AL132020 08/25/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 59 63 69 74 82 86 83 75 68 63 58 64 71 59 49 43 V (KT) LAND 55 59 63 69 74 82 86 45 33 29 27 27 33 39 28 19 N/A V (KT) LGEM 55 59 63 67 71 78 85 45 32 28 27 27 33 40 41 38 35 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 9 14 10 6 7 9 21 24 19 16 21 28 36 38 69 79 66 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 5 6 4 0 2 0 3 1 2 5 3 -1 8 0 -3 -1 SHEAR DIR 2 9 34 32 325 284 268 247 276 268 266 264 263 218 227 212 241 SST (C) 30.2 30.4 30.4 30.1 30.5 30.2 30.9 31.8 30.6 30.0 30.0 28.4 28.3 26.4 20.2 15.9 13.9 POT. INT. (KT) 173 173 173 174 173 172 172 172 172 170 173 148 148 124 87 78 76 ADJ. POT. INT. 169 170 171 165 169 157 169 172 155 142 152 140 141 114 82 75 73 200 MB T (C) -51.0 -51.1 -50.8 -50.4 -50.6 -50.0 -49.3 -49.4 -49.9 -50.5 -51.2 -51.9 -51.6 -51.8 -50.6 -50.2 -51.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.7 1.4 1.7 1.1 0.7 1.0 0.4 0.7 0.0 0.7 1.0 2.2 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 12 11 10 11 10 12 8 12 7 10 7 4 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 55 53 55 58 59 62 59 56 55 58 60 57 51 47 50 46 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 20 22 23 24 24 25 23 18 14 12 10 17 24 22 23 27 850 MB ENV VOR 25 19 41 43 21 -1 -61 -43 -98 0 3 60 125 156 193 204 171 200 MB DIV 19 12 31 42 29 30 21 40 8 8 38 27 27 68 47 78 56 700-850 TADV -4 -6 -1 -6 -1 1 25 2 31 5 48 64 15 13 24 -35 -26 LAND (KM) 75 213 270 373 391 249 17 -258 -498 -625 -633 -389 273 462 218 45 862 LAT (DEG N) 22.6 23.3 24.0 24.8 25.6 27.3 29.6 32.1 34.5 36.0 36.4 36.6 36.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 85.0 86.3 87.6 89.1 90.6 92.4 93.5 93.5 92.3 90.5 87.2 81.3 72.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 15 14 15 16 14 12 12 12 12 11 19 29 31 29 33 37 38 HEAT CONTENT 124 56 59 56 73 41 43 7 6 5 5 3 23 1 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 17 CX,CY: -15/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 573 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 41.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 7. 11. 14. 16. 17. 19. 21. 21. 19. 16. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -2. -6. -10. -18. -29. -36. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 0. -8. -13. -17. -20. -12. -3. -6. -5. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 6. 9. 13. 12. 8. 5. 1. -2. -5. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 14. 19. 27. 31. 28. 20. 13. 8. 4. 9. 16. 4. -6. -12. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 22.6 85.0 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132020 LAURA 08/25/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 8.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.75 3.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 73.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.48 2.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.56 3.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.86 2.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.44 1.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 330.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.59 2.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.8 27.5 to 139.6 0.77 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.26 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 43% is 3.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 5.4 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 27% is 6.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 21% is 4.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.5% 43.0% 25.3% 15.1% 13.5% 27.4% 20.9% 18.0% Logistic: 10.6% 34.6% 25.2% 22.4% 16.1% 26.9% 28.1% 9.8% Bayesian: 2.1% 25.0% 9.0% 1.6% 0.6% 5.6% 9.5% 0.2% Consensus: 7.7% 34.2% 19.8% 13.0% 10.1% 20.0% 19.5% 9.3% DTOPS: 15.0% 71.0% 37.0% 19.0% 6.0% 14.0% 5.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132020 LAURA 08/25/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132020 LAURA 08/25/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 5( 5) 8( 13) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 1( 1) 2( 3) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 59 63 69 74 82 86 45 33 29 27 27 33 39 28 19 DIS 18HR AGO 55 54 58 64 69 77 81 40 28 24 22 22 28 34 23 DIS DIS 12HR AGO 55 52 51 57 62 70 74 33 21 17 15 15 21 27 16 DIS DIS 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 50 58 62 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT