* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LAURA AL132020 08/25/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 58 62 67 73 81 86 83 77 69 60 56 55 61 51 39 30 V (KT) LAND 55 62 65 71 76 85 89 54 36 30 28 27 27 36 27 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 55 61 65 68 73 82 87 55 35 29 28 27 27 35 36 33 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 11 13 14 10 4 12 15 23 20 14 19 23 30 47 68 85 84 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 4 7 3 4 2 0 3 6 7 1 2 1 -2 -3 -6 SHEAR DIR 356 353 8 41 35 306 250 264 246 274 259 262 258 259 232 220 221 SST (C) 30.7 30.4 30.4 30.4 30.2 30.2 30.5 31.8 31.1 30.0 30.0 29.7 28.9 25.4 22.7 16.7 14.3 POT. INT. (KT) 174 173 173 173 173 172 172 173 172 170 171 169 156 116 98 78 74 ADJ. POT. INT. 174 173 172 170 164 158 162 173 165 141 146 153 148 109 91 74 71 200 MB T (C) -50.9 -51.0 -51.2 -50.7 -50.4 -50.5 -49.6 -49.1 -49.6 -50.4 -51.0 -52.0 -52.3 -52.8 -52.0 -51.2 -49.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.7 1.0 1.7 1.3 1.0 0.9 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.0 -0.3 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 11 11 9 12 9 14 5 13 5 8 2 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 57 56 53 55 58 60 60 59 54 59 62 61 57 54 53 53 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 22 21 20 23 24 25 26 23 20 16 12 10 10 18 17 15 19 850 MB ENV VOR 23 16 12 37 42 0 -29 -73 -49 -5 28 60 96 141 116 130 148 200 MB DIV 6 19 4 24 39 35 20 23 35 12 35 16 50 61 49 68 62 700-850 TADV -6 -2 -7 -3 -7 -2 14 8 13 24 50 28 28 47 59 -15 -57 LAND (KM) -1 84 250 324 416 266 88 -181 -479 -623 -655 -569 -98 334 319 89 467 LAT (DEG N) 22.3 23.0 23.7 24.5 25.3 26.8 28.9 31.4 34.1 35.9 36.6 36.9 36.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 83.3 84.8 86.3 87.7 89.1 91.4 93.0 93.5 92.8 91.4 88.8 84.1 77.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 16 15 15 15 14 12 12 13 12 10 15 24 29 34 34 31 30 HEAT CONTENT 122 157 54 54 57 49 56 7 6 5 5 5 4 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 17 CX,CY: -15/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 544 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 44.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 11. 14. 16. 17. 19. 21. 21. 19. 17. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -4. -10. -18. -28. -39. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. -1. -6. -12. -20. -22. -22. -12. -14. -16. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 4. 7. 10. 14. 13. 9. 5. 1. -2. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 12. 18. 26. 31. 28. 22. 14. 5. 1. -0. 6. -4. -16. -25. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 22.3 83.3 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132020 LAURA 08/25/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 11.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.71 4.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 88.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.58 3.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.70 5.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.86 3.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.52 2.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 324.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.60 2.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.6 27.5 to 139.6 0.79 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.22 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 24% is 4.9 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 54% is 4.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 36% is 5.2 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 6.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 8.4 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 38% is 8.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 34% is 7.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 24.4% 53.9% 35.9% 26.8% 21.0% 38.2% 34.0% 19.0% Logistic: 14.5% 26.8% 20.2% 13.8% 7.7% 19.9% 25.7% 8.4% Bayesian: 3.1% 45.6% 30.2% 5.5% 1.7% 13.2% 6.7% 0.3% Consensus: 14.0% 42.1% 28.8% 15.3% 10.1% 23.8% 22.1% 9.2% DTOPS: 11.0% 59.0% 28.0% 12.0% 3.0% 16.0% 43.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132020 LAURA 08/25/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132020 LAURA 08/25/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 2( 2) 5( 7) 10( 16) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 2( 2) 1( 3) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 62 65 71 76 85 89 54 36 30 28 27 27 36 27 DIS DIS 18HR AGO 55 54 57 63 68 77 81 46 28 22 20 19 19 28 19 DIS DIS 12HR AGO 55 52 51 57 62 71 75 40 22 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 50 59 63 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT