* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LAURA AL132020 08/24/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 52 55 58 63 71 77 78 75 68 62 56 50 49 41 31 20 V (KT) LAND 50 52 53 56 61 69 75 76 42 32 28 28 28 29 22 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 50 51 52 54 57 63 69 74 41 31 28 28 28 32 33 32 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 15 13 15 15 10 10 7 19 22 19 18 28 32 50 69 94 100 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 0 -1 4 7 0 2 3 1 0 5 8 -2 -7 -2 -18 -18 SHEAR DIR 5 3 4 15 34 310 293 262 250 275 264 266 270 267 239 237 241 SST (C) 30.3 30.9 30.3 30.4 30.4 30.4 30.1 30.9 31.5 30.2 30.0 29.7 28.7 24.7 21.3 17.0 14.6 POT. INT. (KT) 174 173 174 174 173 173 172 172 173 173 172 169 153 109 91 80 76 ADJ. POT. INT. 174 173 173 174 171 165 155 169 173 149 148 154 143 100 85 76 73 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.1 -51.3 -51.3 -50.8 -50.8 -50.4 -49.9 -49.6 -50.3 -51.2 -51.9 -52.9 -53.5 -53.9 -53.4 -52.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.5 0.6 1.3 1.5 1.3 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 11 11 10 11 10 13 8 12 6 9 3 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 57 57 56 54 56 59 62 58 55 53 59 62 65 67 69 67 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 21 20 20 21 21 22 21 20 15 12 9 6 8 9 10 11 850 MB ENV VOR -5 12 7 10 36 14 -8 -63 -51 -94 -11 -12 51 79 72 67 92 200 MB DIV 24 13 16 -5 10 35 29 33 27 2 21 10 8 25 68 48 48 700-850 TADV -16 -7 -4 -4 -3 -3 -1 14 2 23 5 54 41 6 31 23 -2 LAND (KM) 69 51 24 202 293 379 220 19 -290 -518 -653 -625 -123 241 187 70 590 LAT (DEG N) 21.4 22.0 22.6 23.4 24.2 25.7 27.5 29.6 32.4 34.8 36.5 37.3 37.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 81.4 82.9 84.4 86.0 87.5 90.0 92.1 93.2 93.2 92.0 89.4 84.5 77.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 16 15 16 16 15 13 12 12 13 13 16 24 28 29 33 36 37 HEAT CONTENT 74 109 146 65 55 66 39 45 7 5 5 5 3 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 17 CX,CY: -15/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 514 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 39.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 12. 16. 18. 20. 22. 24. 25. 23. 21. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. 1. -2. -5. -11. -20. -32. -45. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. -1. -4. -11. -16. -21. -26. -23. -21. -19. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 6. 8. 12. 11. 8. 4. 1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 13. 21. 27. 28. 25. 18. 12. 6. -0. -1. -9. -19. -30. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 21.4 81.4 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132020 LAURA 08/24/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 6.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.6 30.1 to 2.3 0.59 2.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 89.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.59 2.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.69 3.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.73 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.45 1.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 291.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.64 1.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.9 27.5 to 139.6 0.85 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.19 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 38% is 3.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 5.1 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 22% is 4.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 29% is 6.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 14.5% 37.6% 20.7% 13.3% 12.8% 22.2% 28.8% 19.2% Logistic: 11.9% 22.8% 16.1% 12.3% 10.0% 20.0% 24.4% 16.8% Bayesian: 1.3% 33.3% 10.5% 1.7% 0.5% 4.7% 1.2% 0.8% Consensus: 9.2% 31.2% 15.8% 9.1% 7.8% 15.6% 18.1% 12.3% DTOPS: 2.0% 33.0% 18.0% 6.0% 3.0% 10.0% 55.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132020 LAURA 08/24/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132020 LAURA 08/24/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 3( 3) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 1( 1) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 52 53 56 61 69 75 76 42 32 28 28 28 29 22 DIS DIS 18HR AGO 50 49 50 53 58 66 72 73 39 29 25 25 25 26 19 DIS DIS 12HR AGO 50 47 46 49 54 62 68 69 35 25 21 21 21 22 15 DIS DIS 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 45 53 59 60 26 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT