* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LAURA AL132020 08/24/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 51 54 56 58 68 74 79 77 70 62 56 53 51 47 36 26 V (KT) LAND 50 51 54 53 55 65 72 76 55 36 30 28 28 31 28 17 N/A V (KT) LGEM 50 51 52 46 53 59 65 71 54 35 29 28 28 32 34 33 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 17 14 15 15 16 5 11 12 18 22 16 32 31 39 52 77 85 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 3 -2 -3 4 3 4 0 0 4 4 4 -2 0 4 1 -6 SHEAR DIR 347 356 1 355 4 12 312 249 262 245 274 263 272 256 260 235 230 SST (C) 30.6 30.5 31.0 30.5 30.4 30.2 30.4 30.5 31.6 31.2 30.1 29.9 29.2 25.1 21.2 19.3 14.7 POT. INT. (KT) 174 173 173 174 174 173 173 171 172 174 174 172 159 110 89 86 77 ADJ. POT. INT. 174 173 173 174 174 164 164 158 172 174 153 153 144 98 83 82 75 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.5 -51.2 -51.3 -51.2 -50.4 -50.6 -49.6 -49.4 -49.5 -50.8 -51.5 -52.3 -52.7 -52.9 -51.7 -52.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.8 1.0 1.7 1.4 1.1 0.7 0.4 0.4 0.1 -0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 11 11 11 9 12 9 13 5 7 5 6 2 0 0 700-500 MB RH 57 58 58 56 55 58 60 60 60 58 62 69 69 59 47 50 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 21 22 21 21 24 25 26 24 20 15 12 13 14 16 15 14 850 MB ENV VOR -16 -7 2 3 9 40 -8 -28 -70 -70 -61 -30 30 57 92 90 68 200 MB DIV 46 31 5 13 -5 26 35 31 19 35 41 50 27 39 41 40 34 700-850 TADV -11 -16 -13 -6 -2 -6 0 10 3 15 15 50 -2 11 13 3 -95 LAND (KM) 69 61 73 30 213 383 262 100 -79 -393 -667 -696 -196 146 127 144 416 LAT (DEG N) 21.0 21.5 21.9 22.7 23.5 25.0 26.8 28.7 30.5 33.4 36.6 37.8 36.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 79.7 81.2 82.7 84.3 86.0 88.6 91.2 92.7 93.2 92.4 89.6 85.0 78.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 16 15 16 17 16 14 13 10 12 17 19 22 23 21 29 42 48 HEAT CONTENT 66 74 104 150 66 57 51 47 7 6 5 5 4 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 17 CX,CY: -15/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 553 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 26.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 34.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 12. 16. 18. 20. 23. 25. 26. 24. 22. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 0. -2. -6. -10. -16. -25. -36. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 0. 3. 4. 4. 2. -5. -11. -16. -16. -15. -11. -13. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 9. 6. 3. 1. -1. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -6. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 6. 8. 18. 24. 29. 27. 20. 12. 6. 3. 1. -3. -14. -24. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 21.0 79.7 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132020 LAURA 08/24/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 5.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.53 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 92.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.61 1.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.60 2.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.73 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.47 1.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 295.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.63 1.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.6 27.5 to 139.6 0.86 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.22 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 31% is 2.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 4.8 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 24% is 5.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.2% 31.1% 15.7% 12.5% 12.0% 16.3% 23.5% 20.2% Logistic: 4.4% 22.2% 14.7% 9.2% 7.3% 14.7% 12.6% 20.9% Bayesian: 0.2% 5.7% 1.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.4% 0.9% 2.1% Consensus: 4.3% 19.7% 10.6% 7.2% 6.4% 10.5% 12.3% 14.4% DTOPS: 4.0% 22.0% 14.0% 9.0% 3.0% 16.0% 53.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132020 LAURA 08/24/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132020 LAURA 08/24/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 2( 2) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 51 54 53 55 65 72 76 55 36 30 28 28 31 28 17 DIS 18HR AGO 50 49 52 51 53 63 70 74 53 34 28 26 26 29 26 15 DIS 12HR AGO 50 47 46 45 47 57 64 68 47 28 22 20 20 23 20 DIS DIS 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 42 52 59 63 42 23 17 15 15 18 15 DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT