* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LAURA AL132020 08/24/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 57 58 60 60 65 72 78 78 74 69 64 58 54 50 39 29 V (KT) LAND 55 57 58 58 57 62 69 75 57 36 30 28 28 31 27 16 N/A V (KT) LGEM 55 57 59 59 59 64 69 73 58 36 30 28 28 28 33 33 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 16 18 14 12 14 9 8 11 22 25 24 24 35 42 52 78 96 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 1 2 0 -3 7 1 0 2 0 1 1 3 -2 -3 0 -13 SHEAR DIR 338 354 4 2 356 36 295 278 261 249 267 265 263 249 239 222 229 SST (C) 31.2 30.6 30.7 30.9 30.7 30.4 30.4 30.3 31.6 31.2 30.1 30.2 28.2 24.4 21.3 20.7 14.9 POT. INT. (KT) 174 174 174 174 173 173 173 172 172 173 174 174 144 106 91 89 76 ADJ. POT. INT. 174 174 174 174 173 170 166 159 172 173 151 154 129 98 85 84 74 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.9 -51.7 -51.4 -51.5 -51.2 -51.0 -50.6 -50.3 -50.0 -50.6 -51.6 -52.3 -53.4 -53.1 -52.0 -50.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.3 0.5 1.0 1.5 1.2 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 10 11 11 11 9 10 9 11 7 10 5 6 2 1 0 700-500 MB RH 58 59 60 59 59 59 60 65 62 58 55 64 66 63 60 58 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 18 17 18 18 19 19 21 20 18 15 11 9 9 10 8 9 850 MB ENV VOR -4 -22 -13 8 8 31 0 -13 -76 -67 -96 -26 0 70 78 95 100 200 MB DIV 22 30 16 10 16 18 43 36 37 36 31 43 29 2 17 75 18 700-850 TADV -6 -14 -14 -8 -6 -5 -1 -3 9 13 29 14 25 24 -66 -27 -74 LAND (KM) 22 46 13 6 84 337 323 149 -85 -346 -560 -710 -460 4 263 265 224 LAT (DEG N) 20.5 21.2 21.9 22.6 23.2 24.6 26.2 28.2 30.5 33.0 35.5 37.1 37.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 78.0 79.6 81.3 82.9 84.5 87.5 90.1 92.2 92.9 92.2 90.0 86.3 81.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 17 17 17 16 16 15 14 13 12 14 16 18 23 28 33 36 36 HEAT CONTENT 64 62 72 126 164 50 62 38 7 6 5 5 2 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 18 CX,CY: -16/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 589 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 39.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 22.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 11. 14. 16. 18. 20. 22. 22. 20. 18. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 3. 4. 3. 1. -1. -2. -5. -10. -16. -25. -36. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -6. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. -1. -4. -10. -15. -18. -19. -17. -18. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -0. 1. 1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. 2. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 5. 10. 17. 23. 23. 19. 14. 9. 3. -1. -5. -16. -26. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 20.5 78.0 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132020 LAURA 08/24/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 5.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.6 30.1 to 2.3 0.56 1.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 97.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.64 2.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.42 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.86 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.9 to -2.9 0.39 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 292.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.63 1.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.8 27.5 to 139.6 0.81 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.22 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 33% is 3.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 4.8 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 22% is 4.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 21% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.6% 32.9% 16.2% 12.8% 12.1% 17.2% 21.6% 21.1% Logistic: 2.2% 9.3% 4.7% 1.7% 1.1% 4.8% 9.9% 11.2% Bayesian: 0.8% 21.0% 4.9% 0.5% 0.1% 1.7% 3.9% 2.2% Consensus: 3.5% 21.1% 8.6% 5.0% 4.4% 7.9% 11.8% 11.5% DTOPS: 1.0% 5.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 9.0% 2.0% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132020 LAURA 08/24/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132020 LAURA 08/24/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 57 58 58 57 62 69 75 57 36 30 28 28 31 27 16 DIS 18HR AGO 55 54 55 55 54 59 66 72 54 33 27 25 25 28 24 DIS DIS 12HR AGO 55 52 51 51 50 55 62 68 50 29 23 21 21 24 20 DIS DIS 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 44 49 56 62 44 23 17 15 15 18 DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT