* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LAURA AL132020 08/24/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 52 54 57 60 63 72 77 80 81 72 66 64 68 70 69 53 V (KT) LAND 50 51 53 56 57 59 67 72 76 47 33 29 28 28 34 33 17 V (KT) LGEM 50 49 51 54 55 58 64 71 76 50 34 29 28 28 35 38 36 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 16 19 19 15 13 13 6 13 14 21 22 16 25 31 29 46 86 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 0 1 -1 2 1 3 -5 0 5 5 4 0 3 10 0 SHEAR DIR 326 335 353 3 1 357 340 315 265 268 251 283 269 249 226 216 214 SST (C) 30.2 31.3 30.7 30.6 31.0 30.5 30.2 30.4 30.6 31.7 31.0 30.1 29.9 28.3 24.0 23.2 17.2 POT. INT. (KT) 174 174 174 174 174 173 173 173 172 172 173 174 172 147 104 100 79 ADJ. POT. INT. 174 174 174 174 174 173 163 164 163 172 168 153 155 136 97 92 75 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.6 -51.9 -51.7 -51.4 -51.4 -50.5 -51.0 -50.0 -49.6 -49.9 -51.1 -51.4 -52.9 -52.6 -52.1 -50.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.8 1.2 1.5 0.9 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.3 -0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 11 10 10 10 9 12 8 12 4 8 4 4 1 0 700-500 MB RH 57 57 57 59 60 57 60 62 64 65 59 63 67 66 58 51 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 17 16 17 17 18 20 21 21 23 18 15 13 16 21 25 20 850 MB ENV VOR 8 -8 -19 -9 2 -4 27 -6 -37 -97 -90 -57 36 91 86 110 111 200 MB DIV 12 25 33 7 -3 -1 44 34 40 7 33 59 67 41 74 117 53 700-850 TADV -3 0 -19 -19 -13 -16 -10 -10 4 2 24 21 42 -19 -28 16 -46 LAND (KM) -6 22 46 28 29 228 401 248 76 -169 -429 -596 -668 -244 233 273 22 LAT (DEG N) 19.9 20.5 21.1 21.8 22.4 24.0 25.2 26.9 28.9 31.3 33.9 36.0 37.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 75.7 77.5 79.3 81.0 82.6 85.7 88.2 90.7 92.6 93.0 92.1 89.3 84.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 18 18 18 17 16 15 14 13 12 13 14 17 23 29 31 32 33 HEAT CONTENT 63 66 62 67 110 97 55 51 53 7 6 5 5 3 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 18 CX,CY: -16/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 580 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 29.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 12. 16. 18. 20. 23. 26. 28. 26. 25. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 2. 3. 1. -0. -1. -3. -6. -9. -14. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 0. 0. 1. -5. -11. -13. -9. -4. 0. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 7. 5. 3. 1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 10. 13. 22. 27. 30. 31. 22. 16. 14. 18. 20. 19. 3. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 19.9 75.7 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132020 LAURA 08/24/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 5.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.49 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 73.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.48 1.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.57 2.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.73 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.55 1.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 267.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.66 1.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.0 27.5 to 139.6 0.86 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.21 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 34% is 3.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 4.6 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 32% is 7.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 27% is 5.1 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.2% 34.2% 16.3% 12.5% 11.5% 17.2% 32.2% 26.6% Logistic: 9.8% 26.9% 17.7% 10.1% 8.0% 18.5% 29.4% 35.0% Bayesian: 2.9% 28.5% 7.9% 0.8% 0.3% 6.6% 14.4% 15.4% Consensus: 7.0% 29.9% 14.0% 7.8% 6.6% 14.1% 25.3% 25.7% DTOPS: 1.0% 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 59.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132020 LAURA 08/24/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132020 LAURA 08/24/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 51 53 56 57 59 67 72 76 47 33 29 28 28 34 33 17 18HR AGO 50 49 51 54 55 57 65 70 74 45 31 27 26 26 32 31 15 12HR AGO 50 47 46 49 50 52 60 65 69 40 26 22 21 21 27 26 DIS 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 41 43 51 56 60 31 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT