* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LAURA AL132020 08/23/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 47 49 53 56 61 69 77 81 83 77 74 73 77 81 78 69 V (KT) LAND 45 39 45 48 52 55 63 70 74 76 43 32 28 28 28 31 22 V (KT) LGEM 45 40 44 46 48 51 57 64 73 82 46 32 28 28 28 32 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 11 15 15 17 12 12 7 10 8 17 20 16 20 45 50 56 62 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -1 -2 0 1 -2 4 -4 -1 2 5 3 1 3 -1 0 4 SHEAR DIR 327 335 341 353 3 349 28 306 282 254 234 244 225 267 261 258 246 SST (C) 30.2 30.5 31.0 30.5 30.9 30.6 30.3 30.6 30.3 30.8 31.9 31.2 30.1 30.1 28.5 23.5 19.8 POT. INT. (KT) 175 175 175 174 174 173 173 173 172 172 172 172 174 176 149 99 82 ADJ. POT. INT. 175 175 175 174 174 173 166 170 159 166 172 169 150 161 137 89 76 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.6 -51.7 -51.9 -51.6 -51.5 -51.1 -51.2 -50.7 -50.2 -49.9 -50.4 -51.1 -51.6 -52.0 -51.8 -52.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.6 0.4 1.0 1.3 0.9 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 12 11 11 11 11 10 10 10 11 10 11 7 11 4 7 1 1 700-500 MB RH 57 57 55 57 59 59 60 59 64 61 63 57 55 48 40 37 27 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 16 15 15 16 16 17 18 18 19 16 14 13 18 24 27 25 850 MB ENV VOR 6 -4 -13 -16 3 16 32 2 -7 -61 -33 -34 41 42 100 84 -6 200 MB DIV 29 8 30 30 20 6 39 31 35 55 22 34 31 16 -19 -16 -7 700-850 TADV 1 -8 -6 -17 -15 -12 -12 -5 -2 13 4 11 3 58 10 -37 -40 LAND (KM) 72 -17 28 49 23 136 311 369 245 23 -251 -505 -702 -777 -372 40 75 LAT (DEG N) 19.4 20.1 20.7 21.4 22.0 23.3 24.4 25.8 27.4 29.4 31.9 34.3 36.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 74.4 76.5 78.5 80.3 82.0 85.2 88.0 90.6 92.9 94.1 94.5 93.9 92.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 20 20 19 18 17 15 14 14 12 12 12 13 16 24 27 23 21 HEAT CONTENT 72 58 62 63 88 138 55 73 45 51 7 6 5 5 3 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 19 CX,CY: -17/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 551 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 32.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 7. 13. 17. 20. 22. 25. 29. 32. 32. 32. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 2. 1. -4. -10. -17. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. -0. -4. -8. -10. -5. 3. 5. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -2. -0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 8. 6. 3. 1. -1. -3. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 11. 16. 24. 32. 36. 38. 32. 29. 28. 32. 36. 33. 24. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 19.4 74.4 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132020 LAURA 08/23/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.58 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 68.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.45 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.56 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.9 to -2.9 0.39 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 248.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.68 1.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.5 27.5 to 139.6 0.91 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.25 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 33% is 6.4 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.9% 21.0% 14.3% 11.3% 10.4% 13.3% 16.7% 33.1% Logistic: 6.3% 22.3% 13.3% 9.9% 7.9% 17.6% 25.4% 32.1% Bayesian: 1.1% 11.5% 2.7% 0.3% 0.1% 1.5% 5.2% 7.9% Consensus: 4.7% 18.3% 10.1% 7.2% 6.1% 10.8% 15.8% 24.4% DTOPS: 0.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 9.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132020 LAURA 08/23/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132020 LAURA 08/23/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 39 45 48 52 55 63 70 74 76 43 32 28 28 28 31 22 18HR AGO 45 44 50 53 57 60 68 75 79 81 48 37 33 33 33 36 27 12HR AGO 45 42 41 44 48 51 59 66 70 72 39 28 24 24 24 27 18 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 39 42 50 57 61 63 30 19 15 15 15 18 DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT