* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LAURA AL132020 08/23/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 41 43 45 47 53 59 69 78 84 82 74 70 69 69 65 62 V (KT) LAND 40 44 38 36 40 38 49 58 67 73 47 33 29 28 28 28 30 V (KT) LGEM 40 42 37 38 38 39 42 49 59 68 48 33 29 28 28 28 31 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 11 14 16 17 16 9 11 4 12 12 16 20 13 30 36 60 74 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 3 0 -2 1 -2 1 -2 -3 -2 3 4 7 3 1 -1 10 SHEAR DIR 318 325 327 330 339 353 7 296 297 266 252 231 243 236 262 261 233 SST (C) 30.3 30.1 30.1 31.2 30.6 30.8 30.4 30.1 30.3 30.5 31.7 31.2 30.1 30.1 30.1 28.2 18.8 POT. INT. (KT) 174 174 174 175 174 173 173 173 172 172 172 173 172 172 175 147 84 ADJ. POT. INT. 174 174 174 175 174 173 170 159 159 160 172 171 145 142 156 143 81 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -51.9 -51.7 -51.8 -51.8 -51.4 -51.5 -50.7 -50.8 -49.9 -49.5 -49.7 -50.7 -51.0 -51.9 -51.3 -50.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.5 1.0 1.7 1.1 0.8 1.1 0.7 0.0 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 11 10 10 10 10 9 11 8 12 5 10 3 5 0 700-500 MB RH 61 60 57 56 58 60 56 57 58 56 58 60 62 60 50 39 42 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 17 16 16 16 17 17 19 22 24 24 19 15 14 16 17 23 850 MB ENV VOR 15 9 -3 -19 -22 3 -9 19 -7 -26 -59 -48 14 36 49 75 95 200 MB DIV 50 46 28 17 25 -11 11 36 41 28 19 33 24 44 0 -35 21 700-850 TADV 4 2 -9 -8 -12 -13 -14 -7 -1 8 -1 8 -6 28 26 -18 -46 LAND (KM) -42 51 -35 -11 30 -11 249 386 237 95 -137 -408 -638 -719 -647 -248 173 LAT (DEG N) 19.1 19.7 20.2 20.8 21.4 22.8 24.0 25.6 27.0 28.7 31.0 33.5 36.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 72.3 74.1 75.9 77.8 79.8 83.0 86.0 88.6 90.8 92.5 93.0 92.5 90.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 17 18 18 19 18 16 15 13 12 11 12 13 12 11 21 35 42 HEAT CONTENT 70 68 57 63 61 132 69 51 48 46 7 6 5 5 5 3 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 16 CX,CY: -14/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 547 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 27.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -1. 1. 6. 13. 18. 21. 24. 27. 31. 34. 35. 36. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 2. 1. -2. -7. -14. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -0. 3. 5. 4. -4. -9. -11. -8. -7. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 6. 4. 2. 1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 7. 13. 19. 29. 38. 44. 42. 34. 30. 29. 29. 25. 22. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 19.1 72.3 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132020 LAURA 08/23/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 4.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.54 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 63.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.42 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.74 2.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.49 1.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 219.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.71 1.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 134.3 27.5 to 139.6 0.95 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.29 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 25% is 4.7 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.0% 21.1% 14.4% 11.1% 10.3% 12.9% 14.3% 24.5% Logistic: 10.4% 24.0% 13.5% 12.6% 11.7% 25.3% 37.5% 40.3% Bayesian: 2.2% 13.6% 4.0% 0.4% 0.2% 0.8% 1.2% 4.1% Consensus: 6.5% 19.6% 10.6% 8.0% 7.4% 13.0% 17.7% 23.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 36.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132020 LAURA 08/23/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132020 LAURA 08/23/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 44 38 36 40 38 49 58 67 73 47 33 29 28 28 28 30 18HR AGO 40 39 33 31 35 33 44 53 62 68 42 28 24 23 23 23 25 12HR AGO 40 37 36 34 38 36 47 56 65 71 45 31 27 26 26 26 28 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 34 32 43 52 61 67 41 27 23 22 22 22 24 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT