* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LAURA AL132020 08/23/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 48 52 57 60 65 70 74 78 85 83 77 70 66 64 63 62 V (KT) LAND 45 38 42 37 34 31 36 40 44 51 37 30 28 27 28 32 30 V (KT) LGEM 45 38 36 36 33 30 35 41 49 59 43 32 28 27 28 32 35 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 14 11 13 15 19 12 11 6 13 11 18 18 31 22 26 18 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 6 3 0 -3 2 0 5 -2 1 -1 6 6 8 3 2 1 SHEAR DIR 307 313 317 326 335 360 351 10 313 297 283 266 302 278 291 274 225 SST (C) 29.1 29.7 30.0 29.7 30.7 30.5 30.8 30.5 29.9 30.7 31.3 30.3 30.3 29.5 28.5 23.6 20.7 POT. INT. (KT) 156 167 173 167 174 174 173 172 168 172 172 173 174 163 148 101 87 ADJ. POT. INT. 154 167 173 167 174 174 173 167 151 164 172 155 155 141 131 92 81 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.1 -51.9 -51.8 -51.8 -51.7 -51.4 -51.1 -50.8 -50.5 -50.3 -50.3 -50.9 -51.3 -52.1 -52.2 -51.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.5 1.2 1.3 0.8 0.4 0.7 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 12 12 11 11 11 10 11 9 11 6 10 5 6 3 700-500 MB RH 60 61 60 58 56 59 58 57 56 59 58 62 59 68 70 55 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 16 16 16 16 16 17 17 18 23 23 20 16 14 14 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 32 13 6 -6 -26 -23 -16 1 -22 -20 -79 -61 -116 19 125 152 166 200 MB DIV 45 54 50 35 18 9 36 20 34 31 33 49 39 53 68 62 93 700-850 TADV -10 3 2 -6 -9 -13 -15 -12 -8 -5 6 -6 32 -40 -37 27 -102 LAND (KM) -35 -57 24 -15 -48 -33 136 392 255 56 -96 -313 -563 -616 -316 92 259 LAT (DEG N) 18.6 19.2 19.8 20.5 21.2 22.7 23.9 25.3 26.8 28.6 30.8 33.2 35.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 70.1 71.9 73.7 75.5 77.4 80.9 84.1 86.5 88.6 90.2 91.1 90.3 87.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 16 18 18 19 18 17 14 13 11 11 11 14 16 18 22 26 28 HEAT CONTENT 43 56 69 50 59 66 129 52 49 40 6 5 5 5 3 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 523 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 35.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 1. 3. 7. 13. 17. 20. 22. 25. 28. 31. 31. 31. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. -1. -3. -6. -7. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. 0. -0. 1. 7. 6. 1. -5. -8. -8. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 10. 7. 4. 1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 12. 15. 20. 25. 29. 33. 40. 38. 32. 25. 21. 19. 18. 17. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 18.6 70.1 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132020 LAURA 08/23/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 6.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.56 2.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 55.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.36 1.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.87 4.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.9 to -2.9 0.60 1.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 247.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.68 2.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.0 27.5 to 139.6 0.84 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 40.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.33 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 40% is 3.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 4.8 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 24% is 5.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 27% is 5.1 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.8% 40.2% 21.8% 12.9% 12.1% 17.7% 24.1% 26.6% Logistic: 21.4% 35.1% 22.8% 21.5% 18.4% 30.6% 33.1% 37.5% Bayesian: 4.1% 30.8% 12.9% 1.6% 0.7% 2.5% 2.5% 16.4% Consensus: 11.4% 35.3% 19.2% 12.0% 10.4% 16.9% 19.9% 26.8% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 15.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132020 LAURA 08/23/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132020 LAURA 08/23/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 38 42 37 34 31 36 40 44 51 37 30 28 27 28 32 30 18HR AGO 45 44 48 43 40 37 42 46 50 57 43 36 34 33 34 38 36 12HR AGO 45 42 41 36 33 30 35 39 43 50 36 29 27 26 27 31 29 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 32 29 34 38 42 49 35 28 26 25 26 30 28 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT