* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LAURA AL132020 08/23/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 50 55 60 63 68 72 76 81 83 82 75 69 66 67 73 67 V (KT) LAND 45 41 36 43 36 32 34 38 43 45 38 31 28 27 28 29 29 V (KT) LGEM 45 42 36 41 35 31 34 39 47 56 51 35 29 27 28 29 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 3 12 10 10 16 17 9 13 7 16 15 20 21 13 27 39 52 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 4 5 4 3 -1 -1 2 -3 1 -4 2 4 6 5 5 5 SHEAR DIR 262 299 312 319 324 348 3 357 329 321 272 279 265 273 268 257 233 SST (C) 29.1 29.1 30.1 29.7 29.9 30.7 30.7 30.5 30.1 30.5 31.0 31.1 30.2 30.2 28.2 27.9 24.1 POT. INT. (KT) 156 156 174 167 171 174 173 173 172 171 171 172 173 175 143 138 100 ADJ. POT. INT. 154 156 174 167 171 174 173 170 158 159 166 167 151 158 126 117 86 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.2 -52.2 -51.9 -51.7 -51.8 -51.2 -51.4 -50.5 -50.7 -50.0 -50.3 -49.9 -51.1 -51.6 -52.0 -50.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.7 1.3 1.0 0.7 0.3 -0.5 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 11 11 11 10 10 10 8 12 7 12 4 9 5 4 700-500 MB RH 59 61 60 60 60 58 61 58 60 59 58 61 61 66 68 59 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 16 16 17 16 17 17 18 20 23 23 20 17 14 16 22 22 850 MB ENV VOR 38 35 16 11 -2 -30 17 -1 12 -18 -39 -83 -85 -44 57 163 183 200 MB DIV 39 53 44 48 37 19 9 28 34 8 40 19 48 43 100 83 18 700-850 TADV -8 -11 -1 2 -6 -11 -12 -14 -11 -6 14 1 28 -15 78 8 -36 LAND (KM) -8 -44 -42 10 -43 -52 65 314 312 124 -54 -174 -403 -609 -562 -246 -9 LAT (DEG N) 18.3 18.8 19.3 20.0 20.7 22.2 23.5 24.9 26.3 28.0 29.8 31.8 34.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 68.8 70.6 72.4 74.3 76.1 79.9 83.0 85.8 88.5 90.1 90.9 91.0 90.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 16 18 18 19 19 18 15 14 13 10 10 11 13 20 21 16 14 HEAT CONTENT 52 40 70 59 51 62 95 97 50 43 33 6 5 5 3 2 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 526 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 39.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 13. 17. 20. 22. 25. 28. 31. 32. 32. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 2. 0. -1. -3. -7. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 4. 3. -1. -7. -10. -9. -1. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 6. 8. 12. 11. 8. 4. 1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 15. 18. 23. 27. 31. 36. 38. 37. 30. 24. 21. 22. 28. 22. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 18.3 68.8 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132020 LAURA 08/23/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 11.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.71 4.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 54.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.36 2.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.69 4.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 2.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.50 2.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 229.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.70 2.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.6 27.5 to 139.6 0.82 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 44.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.34 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 48% is 4.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 31% is 4.5 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 5.1 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 21% is 4.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 34% is 7.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 48% is 9.2 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.4% 48.4% 31.3% 15.4% 12.6% 21.3% 33.9% 47.8% Logistic: 24.3% 44.9% 29.6% 28.0% 21.7% 38.5% 50.7% 56.6% Bayesian: 16.8% 66.6% 32.6% 7.9% 5.2% 14.7% 15.8% 30.2% Consensus: 18.2% 53.3% 31.2% 17.1% 13.2% 24.8% 33.5% 44.9% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 23.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132020 LAURA 08/23/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132020 LAURA 08/23/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 41 36 43 36 32 34 38 43 45 38 31 28 27 28 29 29 18HR AGO 45 44 39 46 39 35 37 41 46 48 41 34 31 30 31 32 32 12HR AGO 45 42 41 48 41 37 39 43 48 50 43 36 33 32 33 34 34 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 28 24 26 30 35 37 30 23 20 19 20 21 21 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT