* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LAURA AL132020 08/22/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 50 55 60 64 68 72 76 81 86 88 86 80 80 78 81 80 V (KT) LAND 45 50 41 36 43 34 30 35 40 45 47 39 31 28 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 45 50 42 36 41 33 30 36 43 53 63 59 37 30 28 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 6 5 10 8 10 20 9 10 7 9 8 15 19 21 29 47 50 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 1 5 3 0 -2 0 -2 2 -2 1 -3 1 4 0 -1 1 SHEAR DIR 247 236 294 298 307 321 358 338 48 302 305 278 240 232 227 251 246 SST (C) 29.5 29.1 29.2 30.2 29.9 30.9 30.8 30.9 30.4 30.2 30.6 31.3 31.2 30.3 30.2 30.1 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 163 155 157 174 171 174 174 173 173 172 171 172 172 171 172 173 153 ADJ. POT. INT. 163 153 156 174 171 174 174 173 166 155 160 172 168 147 145 145 129 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.4 -52.4 -52.4 -52.0 -51.8 -51.6 -51.4 -51.1 -50.9 -50.5 -50.4 -49.9 -50.4 -51.1 -51.5 -51.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.9 1.2 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 11 11 11 11 11 10 11 9 12 8 11 5 7 700-500 MB RH 62 62 61 60 60 58 62 59 55 53 54 52 57 55 59 46 36 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 14 15 15 14 14 15 17 19 20 20 16 16 15 19 23 850 MB ENV VOR 43 48 38 15 10 -24 -18 -12 9 -12 -15 -67 -66 -65 34 31 50 200 MB DIV 33 42 43 36 41 12 25 16 20 28 32 28 29 53 29 -2 -12 700-850 TADV -5 -13 -11 -1 -6 -11 -11 -16 -7 -3 -6 7 -8 20 18 13 -10 LAND (KM) 34 14 -22 -43 46 -55 -33 169 424 240 106 -30 -287 -463 -581 -681 -594 LAT (DEG N) 17.9 18.3 18.6 19.2 19.7 21.4 22.6 24.1 25.6 26.9 28.2 30.1 32.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 67.5 69.1 70.6 72.4 74.1 77.9 81.3 84.4 87.3 89.5 91.0 91.9 92.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 16 15 16 17 18 18 16 16 14 11 10 11 11 10 11 13 14 HEAT CONTENT 65 51 43 72 66 58 73 142 49 52 39 9 6 5 5 5 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 523 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 36.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 13. 17. 20. 22. 25. 28. 32. 32. 33. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 6. 4. 2. -4. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -7. -7. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. 0. 2. 4. 2. -4. -5. -6. -1. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 8. 11. 10. 7. 4. 1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 15. 19. 23. 27. 31. 36. 41. 43. 41. 35. 35. 33. 36. 35. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 17.9 67.5 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132020 LAURA 08/22/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 11.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.80 4.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 59.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.39 2.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.72 4.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 2.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.24 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 215.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.72 2.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.4 27.5 to 139.6 0.81 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 39.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.32 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 46% is 4.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 30% is 4.4 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 5.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 5.3 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 24% is 5.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 28% is 6.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 42% is 8.1 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.9% 45.9% 30.2% 19.5% 13.1% 23.8% 27.9% 42.3% Logistic: 11.2% 33.6% 19.3% 18.4% 13.7% 42.3% 44.2% 50.3% Bayesian: 13.3% 36.9% 10.8% 2.7% 0.4% 15.0% 7.1% 29.9% Consensus: 11.8% 38.8% 20.1% 13.5% 9.1% 27.1% 26.4% 40.8% DTOPS: 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 6.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132020 LAURA 08/22/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132020 LAURA 08/22/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 50 41 36 43 34 30 35 40 45 47 39 31 28 27 27 27 18HR AGO 45 44 35 30 37 28 24 29 34 39 41 33 25 22 21 21 21 12HR AGO 45 42 41 36 43 34 30 35 40 45 47 39 31 28 27 27 27 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 42 33 29 34 39 44 46 38 30 27 26 26 26 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT