* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LAURA AL132020 08/22/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 35 37 39 43 49 57 62 72 74 78 82 75 71 68 65 V (KT) LAND 35 35 31 30 29 29 28 34 39 49 51 46 33 29 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 35 34 30 29 28 28 28 31 35 40 47 44 32 28 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 7 8 9 9 9 12 7 13 9 16 23 24 25 21 32 45 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 0 4 3 0 0 0 0 -6 2 -6 -1 2 5 2 -3 SHEAR DIR 250 224 211 270 289 299 340 337 346 304 302 285 288 265 284 264 258 SST (C) 29.5 29.5 29.0 29.1 30.1 30.1 30.7 30.7 30.5 30.0 30.6 31.1 31.3 31.1 30.2 30.2 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 163 162 154 156 174 175 174 173 173 171 172 171 171 170 171 174 157 ADJ. POT. INT. 163 161 153 156 174 175 174 173 169 155 162 168 167 158 145 153 136 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.6 -52.5 -52.6 -52.5 -51.8 -52.0 -51.3 -51.7 -50.8 -51.1 -50.4 -50.7 -50.4 -51.1 -51.2 -52.2 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.7 1.3 0.7 0.7 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 10 10 11 10 10 10 8 11 7 11 5 8 2 700-500 MB RH 59 61 61 62 60 59 59 61 58 61 62 63 65 62 64 63 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 12 12 13 13 13 14 13 16 16 18 21 17 16 15 15 850 MB ENV VOR 30 44 57 44 15 0 -27 -3 -11 0 -30 -48 -102 -95 -34 -48 -2 200 MB DIV 12 40 61 49 26 32 24 34 19 31 28 27 21 41 53 77 26 700-850 TADV -2 -7 -17 -10 -3 -9 -15 -11 -19 -6 -16 11 -9 15 12 9 -39 LAND (KM) 33 47 -11 -73 -19 -41 -42 104 338 281 102 -13 -218 -357 -461 -584 -642 LAT (DEG N) 17.7 18.1 18.5 19.0 19.5 20.8 22.2 23.8 25.1 26.6 28.2 29.9 31.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 66.1 67.6 69.2 70.9 72.7 76.4 80.1 83.3 85.9 88.4 90.4 91.7 92.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 16 15 16 17 18 19 17 15 13 13 11 10 9 7 10 16 19 HEAT CONTENT 83 63 47 39 73 52 62 86 86 48 41 19 6 6 5 5 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 17 CX,CY: -16/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 581 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 11.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. 0. 0. 2. 7. 14. 19. 23. 26. 29. 34. 38. 39. 41. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 7. 7. 8. 6. 4. 1. -2. -4. -7. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -1. -1. 0. 4. -3. -4. -5. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. 0. 2. 4. 8. 14. 22. 27. 37. 39. 43. 47. 40. 36. 33. 30. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 17.7 66.1 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132020 LAURA 08/22/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 3.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.75 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 61.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.40 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.30 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.10 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 165.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.77 1.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.3 27.5 to 139.6 0.88 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.31 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 24% is 4.6 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.6% 15.2% 10.7% 8.5% 7.4% 10.7% 11.4% 24.1% Logistic: 1.7% 6.4% 2.5% 1.8% 1.3% 9.3% 24.1% 38.6% Bayesian: 1.0% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.8% 7.1% Consensus: 2.1% 7.5% 4.5% 3.4% 2.9% 6.7% 12.1% 23.3% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 7.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132020 LAURA 08/22/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132020 LAURA 08/22/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 35 31 30 29 29 28 34 39 49 51 46 33 29 27 27 27 18HR AGO 35 34 30 29 28 28 27 33 38 48 50 45 32 28 26 26 26 12HR AGO 35 32 31 30 29 29 28 34 39 49 51 46 33 29 27 27 27 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 24 24 23 29 34 44 46 41 28 24 22 22 22 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT