* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LAURA AL132020 08/22/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 34 34 36 38 43 49 55 63 70 76 81 81 76 69 69 68 V (KT) LAND 35 34 34 31 29 30 28 28 39 46 51 56 41 31 28 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 35 34 33 30 29 32 28 27 34 39 46 53 40 31 28 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 14 8 8 10 6 17 9 14 9 16 15 27 29 29 20 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 1 1 0 2 2 -2 1 -6 -1 -4 -3 -2 2 4 2 0 SHEAR DIR 247 254 231 218 273 335 317 357 338 340 310 299 290 279 289 270 258 SST (C) 29.2 29.4 29.4 29.0 29.3 29.3 30.5 31.1 30.8 30.5 30.4 30.6 31.1 31.0 30.3 30.4 30.2 POT. INT. (KT) 158 161 161 154 159 160 174 174 173 171 171 171 171 171 171 171 171 ADJ. POT. INT. 158 161 161 154 159 159 174 174 173 161 156 159 166 161 145 146 142 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.0 -52.7 -52.5 -52.7 -52.3 -51.9 -51.8 -51.5 -51.2 -51.0 -50.5 -50.4 -50.4 -50.8 -51.4 -51.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.8 0.9 1.1 0.6 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 10 10 10 11 10 11 10 10 9 10 8 10 6 9 4 700-500 MB RH 58 61 61 62 64 61 62 62 61 63 61 60 56 60 59 69 70 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 12 12 13 13 13 13 15 16 18 20 21 18 16 17 16 850 MB ENV VOR 24 25 41 52 46 -1 -12 -13 -14 -4 -11 -17 -67 -67 -79 -22 2 200 MB DIV 1 8 30 59 62 30 29 44 40 20 25 13 20 31 78 42 57 700-850 TADV -12 -4 -8 -12 -10 -4 -13 -13 -14 -11 0 1 33 -4 16 10 9 LAND (KM) 161 22 62 -29 -78 -13 -15 -10 267 381 210 75 -41 -207 -379 -451 -566 LAT (DEG N) 17.4 17.8 18.2 18.7 19.1 20.4 21.6 23.1 24.9 26.2 27.2 28.5 30.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 64.5 66.1 67.8 69.5 71.3 74.8 78.5 82.0 84.8 87.0 88.7 89.9 90.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 17 16 17 17 17 18 19 16 14 10 9 9 9 9 8 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 72 80 60 43 42 49 56 94 129 49 57 42 6 6 5 5 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 18 CX,CY: -17/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 641 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 11.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. 0. 0. 2. 7. 14. 19. 23. 26. 29. 33. 37. 39. 40. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 3. 1. -3. -6. -7. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 5. 5. 1. -3. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. 1. 3. 8. 14. 20. 28. 35. 41. 46. 46. 41. 34. 34. 33. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 17.4 64.5 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132020 LAURA 08/22/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 3.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.6 30.1 to 2.3 0.66 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 59.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.39 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.26 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.15 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 162.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.77 1.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.6 27.5 to 139.6 0.86 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.29 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 21% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.7% 14.3% 10.1% 7.9% 6.8% 10.2% 10.9% 21.3% Logistic: 2.0% 8.6% 3.7% 3.1% 2.2% 9.5% 20.9% 44.3% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.5% 8.1% Consensus: 2.0% 7.9% 4.7% 3.7% 3.0% 6.6% 10.8% 24.6% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 7.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132020 LAURA 08/22/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132020 LAURA 08/22/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 34 34 31 29 30 28 28 39 46 51 56 41 31 28 27 27 18HR AGO 35 34 34 31 29 30 28 28 39 46 51 56 41 31 28 27 27 12HR AGO 35 32 31 28 26 27 25 25 36 43 48 53 38 28 25 24 24 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 23 24 22 22 33 40 45 50 35 25 22 21 21 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT