* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LAURA AL132020 08/22/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 40 40 42 44 49 54 57 63 67 73 78 82 80 69 70 67 V (KT) LAND 40 40 40 42 37 36 32 29 36 40 47 51 55 41 31 28 27 V (KT) LGEM 40 40 40 40 35 30 31 29 33 38 44 51 59 45 32 28 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 16 12 5 6 9 7 18 10 15 9 16 17 26 28 21 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 5 4 7 0 0 0 0 -2 0 -3 -2 -6 -2 3 5 -1 SHEAR DIR 223 257 265 272 229 313 321 349 3 2 354 335 279 292 280 300 269 SST (C) 28.9 29.2 29.5 29.4 29.1 30.4 30.2 30.7 30.8 30.7 30.5 30.4 30.7 30.5 30.3 30.4 30.2 POT. INT. (KT) 152 157 163 161 156 174 174 174 173 172 171 171 170 171 171 171 170 ADJ. POT. INT. 152 157 163 161 155 174 174 174 173 171 159 154 158 155 148 145 139 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.8 -52.9 -52.7 -52.5 -52.5 -52.0 -52.1 -51.4 -51.6 -50.7 -50.8 -50.2 -50.4 -50.2 -51.5 -51.4 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.5 0.6 1.1 1.1 0.8 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 8 11 7 10 4 8 700-500 MB RH 59 59 61 64 64 66 63 63 66 64 66 64 62 62 61 66 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 13 14 14 13 14 15 15 17 16 19 21 23 24 18 20 16 850 MB ENV VOR 29 27 32 46 50 21 3 -20 16 -9 -4 -19 -28 -67 -54 -15 -21 200 MB DIV 14 2 13 23 42 24 18 5 25 14 34 10 9 15 81 37 50 700-850 TADV -18 -14 -9 -10 -14 -5 -12 -22 -8 -25 -3 -15 5 -7 14 -1 10 LAND (KM) 359 188 67 58 -22 10 -66 -42 78 332 331 142 29 -59 -254 -419 -531 LAT (DEG N) 16.8 17.1 17.4 18.0 18.6 19.3 20.5 22.2 23.5 24.9 26.4 27.8 29.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 62.7 64.4 66.1 67.8 69.4 72.9 76.5 80.1 83.6 86.1 87.6 88.8 89.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 16 17 17 17 16 18 18 18 15 12 9 8 8 10 10 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 45 69 90 61 44 76 54 63 119 66 50 63 40 7 5 5 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 596 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 20.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 8. 13. 18. 21. 24. 27. 31. 34. 35. 36. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 1. -2. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 0. -1. 2. 3. 6. 5. -3. -1. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. 0. 2. 4. 9. 14. 17. 23. 27. 33. 38. 42. 40. 29. 30. 27. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 16.8 62.7 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132020 LAURA 08/22/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.6 30.1 to 2.3 0.70 2.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 61.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.41 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.60 2.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.25 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 177.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.76 1.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.7 27.5 to 139.6 0.80 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.22 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 22% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.9% 20.1% 14.2% 11.6% 10.5% 12.7% 14.0% 21.6% Logistic: 2.2% 10.0% 5.7% 4.9% 2.6% 9.1% 10.3% 36.4% Bayesian: 0.1% 1.7% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.5% 16.0% Consensus: 3.1% 10.6% 6.8% 5.5% 4.3% 7.4% 8.2% 24.7% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 9.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132020 LAURA 08/22/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132020 LAURA 08/22/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 40 40 42 37 36 32 29 36 40 47 51 55 41 31 28 27 18HR AGO 40 39 39 41 36 35 31 28 35 39 46 50 54 40 30 27 26 12HR AGO 40 37 36 38 33 32 28 25 32 36 43 47 51 37 27 24 23 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 25 24 20 17 24 28 35 39 43 29 19 16 15 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT