* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LAURA AL132020 08/21/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 44 46 48 50 53 57 59 60 61 61 61 62 61 60 61 60 V (KT) LAND 40 44 46 43 48 40 46 49 50 51 50 51 51 35 29 28 27 V (KT) LGEM 40 44 46 48 47 39 44 49 54 59 63 66 69 42 31 28 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 14 19 15 8 9 6 16 12 12 11 18 20 32 32 32 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 6 4 5 3 -2 0 0 0 -7 0 -5 -2 -5 -5 -1 -8 SHEAR DIR 217 225 256 271 267 267 321 335 10 350 348 324 324 314 304 304 312 SST (C) 28.8 28.9 29.1 29.4 29.3 28.8 29.0 30.3 30.8 30.5 30.4 30.0 29.8 30.4 30.4 30.3 30.2 POT. INT. (KT) 151 152 156 161 159 152 155 174 174 172 171 169 165 170 170 170 171 ADJ. POT. INT. 151 152 155 160 159 152 153 174 174 164 157 145 140 148 146 143 141 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -52.9 -52.9 -53.0 -52.7 -52.6 -52.4 -52.1 -51.9 -51.7 -51.5 -51.3 -51.3 -51.4 -51.5 -52.2 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 10 10 11 10 10 10 10 8 10 8 12 8 10 700-500 MB RH 59 57 59 60 63 64 63 66 67 67 66 60 55 49 51 53 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 13 13 13 11 11 11 11 10 9 8 8 8 8 8 7 850 MB ENV VOR 21 15 17 18 20 23 -15 -34 -31 -59 -70 -72 -68 -104 -74 -88 -67 200 MB DIV 27 6 -1 1 19 33 19 17 14 22 11 2 12 23 21 0 -18 700-850 TADV -9 -23 -13 -7 -7 -10 -12 -17 -19 -13 -7 -1 -4 3 4 2 7 LAND (KM) 525 341 158 -12 46 -22 24 15 94 263 274 174 8 -106 -276 -438 -511 LAT (DEG N) 17.1 17.5 17.8 18.3 18.8 19.6 20.9 22.4 24.0 25.7 27.3 28.8 30.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 60.9 62.6 64.3 65.9 67.5 71.3 75.2 78.7 82.3 84.6 85.9 86.9 87.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 16 17 16 16 17 19 19 18 16 11 9 8 8 7 8 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 41 45 64 71 61 38 41 58 61 60 52 40 34 5 5 5 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 578 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 24.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 18. 21. 24. 27. 30. 32. 33. 34. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 2. -1. -5. -8. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -12. -13. -14. -14. -14. -13. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 5. 4. 2. 1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 6. 8. 10. 13. 17. 19. 20. 22. 21. 21. 22. 21. 20. 21. 20. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 17.1 60.9 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132020 LAURA 08/21/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 7.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.60 2.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 56.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.37 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.67 2.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.9 to -2.9 0.40 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 199.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.73 1.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.7 27.5 to 139.6 0.79 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.19 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 32% is 2.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 4.6 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 32% is 6.2 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.7% 32.0% 18.3% 12.9% 11.4% 13.5% 18.4% 32.1% Logistic: 4.5% 10.7% 6.8% 4.0% 1.4% 8.0% 16.0% 33.8% Bayesian: 1.2% 14.6% 6.9% 1.1% 0.4% 4.2% 6.8% 13.2% Consensus: 4.8% 19.1% 10.7% 6.0% 4.4% 8.5% 13.7% 26.4% DTOPS: 3.0% 3.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132020 LAURA 08/21/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132020 LAURA 08/21/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 44 46 43 48 40 46 49 50 51 50 51 51 35 29 28 27 18HR AGO 40 39 41 38 43 35 41 44 45 46 45 46 46 30 24 23 22 12HR AGO 40 37 36 33 38 30 36 39 40 41 40 41 41 25 19 18 17 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 35 27 33 36 37 38 37 38 38 22 16 15 DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT