* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LAURA AL132020 08/21/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 44 46 48 50 52 56 59 61 62 60 63 63 67 65 67 67 V (KT) LAND 40 44 46 48 44 44 46 50 51 52 49 52 52 37 30 28 27 V (KT) LGEM 40 44 47 48 44 48 43 47 52 59 63 65 68 45 32 28 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 11 16 19 14 10 5 3 14 12 19 9 10 15 18 22 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 4 5 3 4 -4 1 -1 -1 -1 -3 -2 -1 -1 -2 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 242 228 229 254 269 205 302 331 3 2 10 9 340 296 301 273 246 SST (C) 28.7 28.8 28.9 29.1 29.4 28.8 29.3 29.7 30.5 30.9 30.3 30.1 29.9 30.4 30.4 30.4 30.4 POT. INT. (KT) 149 151 152 156 161 151 160 167 173 173 172 171 167 171 170 169 169 ADJ. POT. INT. 149 150 152 156 161 150 160 164 173 173 161 150 142 149 145 142 138 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.3 -53.0 -53.0 -53.1 -52.6 -52.7 -52.1 -52.1 -51.5 -51.7 -50.9 -51.4 -51.1 -51.7 -51.5 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 11 10 10 10 10 11 11 11 9 10 7 10 6 11 5 700-500 MB RH 59 58 57 58 60 63 64 63 65 65 64 65 62 58 57 65 67 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 13 12 12 12 11 11 9 9 9 6 7 5 6 3 3 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 29 21 15 19 22 29 0 -20 -45 -23 -46 -46 -59 -71 -102 -61 -63 200 MB DIV 30 19 -9 -9 10 31 12 3 0 5 -1 7 5 25 3 23 -5 700-850 TADV -2 -11 -23 -17 -10 -14 -3 -12 -14 -5 -16 4 -3 1 2 5 2 LAND (KM) 672 501 329 143 -11 0 49 11 11 200 297 216 40 -90 -265 -398 -494 LAT (DEG N) 17.0 17.3 17.5 18.0 18.4 19.3 20.3 21.7 23.1 24.7 26.6 28.4 29.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 59.5 61.1 62.7 64.4 66.1 69.7 73.4 77.2 80.5 83.2 85.5 87.0 87.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 17 15 16 17 17 18 19 18 16 14 13 10 8 8 7 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 40 43 45 66 70 37 52 51 67 56 61 56 33 6 5 5 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 18 CX,CY: -17/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 643 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 22.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 18. 21. 24. 27. 30. 33. 33. 34. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 6. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -14. -14. -17. -16. -18. -18. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. 16. 19. 21. 22. 20. 23. 23. 27. 25. 27. 27. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 17.0 59.5 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132020 LAURA 08/21/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 5.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.56 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 52.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.35 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.62 2.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.8 2.9 to -2.9 0.20 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 210.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.72 1.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.6 27.5 to 139.6 0.77 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.18 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 24% is 4.6 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.6% 20.5% 14.6% 12.0% 10.3% 12.8% 13.9% 23.7% Logistic: 8.1% 15.0% 10.3% 10.7% 5.0% 21.8% 28.4% 57.1% Bayesian: 6.3% 12.8% 7.0% 1.1% 0.2% 9.7% 18.1% 31.4% Consensus: 7.3% 16.1% 10.6% 7.9% 5.2% 14.7% 20.2% 37.4% DTOPS: 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132020 LAURA 08/21/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132020 LAURA 08/21/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 44 46 48 44 44 46 50 51 52 49 52 52 37 30 28 27 18HR AGO 40 39 41 43 39 39 41 45 46 47 44 47 47 32 25 23 22 12HR AGO 40 37 36 38 34 34 36 40 41 42 39 42 42 27 20 18 17 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 26 26 28 32 33 34 31 34 34 19 DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT