* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * THIRTEEN AL132020 08/21/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 33 34 38 41 46 49 50 50 52 51 56 54 57 58 V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 33 34 38 41 46 49 50 50 52 51 39 31 28 27 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 31 31 31 31 31 32 35 38 40 42 43 35 29 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 14 9 15 19 6 10 8 14 13 13 12 14 12 19 24 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 3 2 3 3 -1 0 -1 1 -3 0 0 -2 7 0 3 SHEAR DIR 240 249 226 233 257 255 270 354 356 31 360 360 338 314 288 260 260 SST (C) 28.4 28.6 28.8 28.9 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.2 30.6 31.2 30.5 30.2 29.9 30.3 30.6 30.6 30.4 POT. INT. (KT) 145 148 151 152 156 158 158 158 174 173 172 171 167 171 170 169 169 ADJ. POT. INT. 145 147 150 151 154 156 155 155 174 173 163 150 142 149 150 145 140 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.5 -53.4 -53.1 -53.0 -52.8 -52.6 -52.4 -52.0 -51.7 -51.5 -51.2 -51.3 -51.3 -51.2 -51.6 -52.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 10 10 10 11 11 12 11 11 9 10 8 9 6 11 8 700-500 MB RH 61 59 57 56 57 62 62 62 64 66 66 66 62 60 57 55 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 13 13 12 13 10 10 10 9 7 7 4 5 3 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 31 23 15 13 10 10 -6 -38 -65 -65 -60 -49 -67 -47 -94 -63 -46 200 MB DIV 31 26 6 -23 -13 20 19 -8 3 23 20 11 17 9 11 12 0 700-850 TADV -1 -1 -5 -14 -8 -4 -12 -5 -10 -18 -8 -5 5 3 3 11 -2 LAND (KM) 839 699 517 344 186 148 111 144 133 19 117 157 42 -80 -236 -378 -478 LAT (DEG N) 17.5 17.9 18.2 18.6 19.0 19.8 20.8 21.9 23.4 25.1 26.8 28.3 29.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 57.4 59.1 60.8 62.5 64.1 67.5 71.0 74.6 78.2 81.3 83.6 85.1 85.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 18 17 17 16 16 17 17 18 17 15 12 9 8 9 8 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 47 53 47 47 75 65 48 48 75 68 49 34 32 8 6 6 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 19 CX,CY: -17/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 727 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 13.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 3. 8. 15. 20. 24. 28. 31. 35. 39. 40. 42. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -4. -6. -7. -9. -12. -14. -18. -16. -19. -18. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 8. 11. 16. 19. 20. 20. 22. 21. 26. 25. 27. 28. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 17.5 57.4 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132020 THIRTEEN 08/21/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.54 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 53.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.35 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.37 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.32 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 169.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.76 1.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.3 27.5 to 139.6 0.82 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 5.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.16 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 7.8 100.0 to 0.0 0.92 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 21% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.5% 15.2% 10.8% 8.4% 7.0% 10.0% 10.9% 20.6% Logistic: 4.8% 9.5% 6.7% 5.1% 2.0% 5.9% 11.8% 32.3% Bayesian: 1.0% 2.2% 1.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.7% 2.2% 8.7% Consensus: 3.4% 8.9% 6.3% 4.6% 3.0% 5.5% 8.3% 20.5% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132020 THIRTEEN 08/21/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132020 THIRTEEN 08/21/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 32 33 34 38 41 46 49 50 50 52 51 39 31 28 27 18HR AGO 30 29 30 31 32 36 39 44 47 48 48 50 49 37 29 26 25 12HR AGO 30 27 26 27 28 32 35 40 43 44 44 46 45 33 25 22 21 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 21 25 28 33 36 37 37 39 38 26 18 15 DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT