* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * THIRTEEN AL132020 08/21/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 34 35 37 40 46 49 52 55 55 58 60 64 60 57 V (KT) LAND 30 31 33 34 35 37 40 46 49 52 51 52 54 44 34 29 28 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 31 31 31 31 31 31 33 37 38 42 44 38 32 28 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 16 12 7 13 13 9 8 6 17 13 18 15 19 18 26 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 3 3 6 2 4 -2 4 -3 -3 0 -2 -3 -2 -1 0 3 SHEAR DIR 228 247 261 238 229 267 233 322 328 5 1 4 339 336 305 327 311 SST (C) 28.1 28.4 28.6 28.8 28.9 29.2 29.1 29.3 29.5 30.5 31.0 30.5 30.1 29.9 30.0 30.4 30.4 POT. INT. (KT) 141 145 148 150 152 157 156 160 163 173 172 172 170 165 167 171 172 ADJ. POT. INT. 141 145 146 148 149 155 154 157 158 173 172 161 146 137 138 149 150 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.6 -53.6 -53.4 -53.3 -53.3 -52.6 -52.7 -52.1 -52.0 -51.4 -51.4 -50.7 -51.1 -50.8 -51.5 -51.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 10 10 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 10 10 8 11 7 11 700-500 MB RH 60 59 58 57 55 57 60 60 61 62 64 65 65 58 53 51 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 14 14 13 13 12 12 10 10 10 9 9 8 10 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR 30 29 19 14 7 -10 3 -30 -45 -87 -73 -90 -67 -69 -57 -94 -79 200 MB DIV 46 33 22 1 -13 -10 8 1 -10 -14 24 8 27 5 15 6 23 700-850 TADV -11 0 2 -4 -10 -4 -14 -7 -12 -14 -4 -15 2 -8 2 -3 21 LAND (KM) 918 852 708 543 382 163 147 190 203 158 14 93 61 -20 -42 -182 -417 LAT (DEG N) 17.1 17.6 18.0 18.4 18.7 19.7 20.5 21.6 23.0 24.5 25.9 27.5 29.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 55.5 57.3 59.0 60.6 62.1 65.1 68.6 72.4 75.9 79.1 81.8 83.7 84.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 19 17 16 15 15 16 18 18 17 15 12 11 8 5 5 8 11 HEAT CONTENT 31 47 54 48 47 68 50 60 58 73 64 49 37 36 36 5 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 20 CX,CY: -18/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 739 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 11.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 15. 20. 24. 28. 31. 35. 38. 40. 41. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 5. 4. 3. 2. -0. -1. -4. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -2. -3. -6. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. -10. -14. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 10. 16. 19. 22. 25. 25. 28. 30. 34. 30. 27. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 17.1 55.5 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132020 THIRTEEN 08/21/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.62 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 45.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.30 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.52 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.29 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 174.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.76 1.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.8 27.5 to 139.6 0.79 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.22 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.9% 16.6% 11.9% 9.4% 8.0% 10.4% 11.0% 20.1% Logistic: 2.5% 7.4% 4.5% 3.3% 1.3% 5.1% 7.9% 22.2% Bayesian: 0.5% 2.5% 1.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.6% 0.6% 6.1% Consensus: 2.6% 8.8% 5.9% 4.3% 3.1% 5.4% 6.5% 16.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132020 THIRTEEN 08/21/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132020 THIRTEEN 08/21/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 33 34 35 37 40 46 49 52 51 52 54 44 34 29 28 18HR AGO 30 29 31 32 33 35 38 44 47 50 49 50 52 42 32 27 26 12HR AGO 30 27 26 27 28 30 33 39 42 45 44 45 47 37 27 22 21 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 21 23 26 32 35 38 37 38 40 30 20 15 DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT