* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * THIRTEEN AL132020 08/20/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 35 36 39 42 46 49 55 56 63 66 70 72 68 67 V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 35 36 39 42 46 49 55 56 61 64 68 57 38 30 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 31 31 31 31 31 31 33 37 43 49 54 59 52 36 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 16 17 14 9 16 4 7 1 11 14 11 10 14 15 28 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 6 5 4 5 1 6 3 4 -3 -1 -3 0 1 -2 0 2 SHEAR DIR 217 235 257 265 246 247 249 275 35 316 355 333 339 319 293 306 290 SST (C) 28.0 28.1 28.3 28.5 28.8 29.0 29.2 29.2 29.2 30.3 31.0 30.6 30.4 29.9 30.2 30.5 30.6 POT. INT. (KT) 140 141 144 146 151 154 157 158 158 174 173 172 171 167 170 169 169 ADJ. POT. INT. 140 141 144 146 148 150 155 155 154 172 173 167 156 142 144 146 147 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.1 -53.4 -53.6 -53.3 -53.1 -52.8 -52.5 -52.2 -51.8 -51.5 -51.1 -50.6 -50.5 -50.2 -50.6 -50.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 -0.2 -0.2 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 9 10 10 11 10 11 11 11 10 10 7 9 7 9 700-500 MB RH 59 59 59 57 57 55 59 61 60 62 63 64 68 63 62 56 64 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 14 14 15 15 15 14 13 12 13 11 14 14 14 15 11 10 850 MB ENV VOR 27 31 30 21 12 0 5 0 -25 -62 -67 -37 -11 -12 -10 -52 -33 200 MB DIV 77 52 45 29 6 -10 25 6 13 -7 24 38 35 3 7 8 37 700-850 TADV -11 -8 0 5 -2 -4 -8 -19 -10 -11 -16 -6 1 -1 -1 3 17 LAND (KM) 1043 939 874 723 539 249 178 149 199 161 30 87 192 65 -27 -145 -231 LAT (DEG N) 16.6 17.2 17.7 18.2 18.6 19.5 20.1 21.1 22.3 23.5 24.9 26.4 28.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 53.4 55.3 57.1 58.9 60.6 63.7 66.9 70.5 74.2 77.6 80.6 83.0 84.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 20 19 18 17 16 15 16 18 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 32 30 46 55 49 73 70 49 51 75 67 76 36 31 38 6 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 21 CX,CY: -19/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 733 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 13.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 15. 20. 24. 28. 31. 35. 38. 40. 41. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. 7. 6. 6. 5. 4. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -3. -5. -5. -8. -5. -6. -5. -5. -10. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 5. 6. 9. 12. 16. 19. 25. 26. 33. 36. 40. 42. 38. 37. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 16.6 53.4 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132020 THIRTEEN 08/20/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.61 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 42.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.28 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.64 2.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.9 to -2.9 0.34 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 168.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.77 1.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.9 27.5 to 139.6 0.77 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.33 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 16.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.83 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 21% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.2% 17.8% 12.7% 9.6% 8.5% 10.9% 11.8% 21.4% Logistic: 2.9% 10.1% 6.0% 4.7% 1.9% 6.6% 6.9% 20.5% Bayesian: 0.4% 2.2% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.5% 0.8% 4.1% Consensus: 2.8% 10.1% 6.5% 4.8% 3.5% 6.0% 6.5% 15.3% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132020 THIRTEEN 08/20/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132020 THIRTEEN 08/20/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 32 35 36 39 42 46 49 55 56 61 64 68 57 38 30 18HR AGO 30 29 30 33 34 37 40 44 47 53 54 59 62 66 55 36 28 12HR AGO 30 27 26 29 30 33 36 40 43 49 50 55 58 62 51 32 24 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 21 24 27 31 34 40 41 46 49 53 42 23 15 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT