* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * THIRTEEN AL132020 08/20/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 37 40 44 49 54 57 63 67 74 74 80 81 81 76 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 37 40 44 49 54 57 63 67 74 74 80 81 81 46 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 39 45 53 64 74 80 81 80 46 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 5 13 15 14 11 12 6 5 1 8 11 11 13 17 17 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 9 9 5 3 2 4 0 3 -2 -2 -6 1 -2 0 1 2 SHEAR DIR 219 214 236 263 274 236 276 247 322 257 321 323 326 300 312 296 295 SST (C) 27.5 27.9 28.1 28.2 28.5 28.9 29.1 29.2 29.1 29.8 30.5 31.0 30.4 30.4 30.0 30.0 30.6 POT. INT. (KT) 133 139 141 142 147 153 156 158 157 168 173 173 172 170 168 169 171 ADJ. POT. INT. 133 139 141 142 147 153 153 157 155 161 171 173 160 150 141 144 154 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.7 -53.0 -53.3 -53.3 -52.8 -52.9 -52.4 -52.4 -51.6 -51.6 -51.0 -51.2 -50.5 -50.4 -50.2 -50.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 9 9 9 10 10 11 11 11 11 11 10 9 7 8 5 700-500 MB RH 61 60 60 59 58 56 59 59 61 60 60 63 66 69 68 63 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 14 15 16 17 18 18 17 16 17 17 20 18 21 22 21 18 850 MB ENV VOR 32 30 38 29 23 20 23 23 0 -13 -48 -30 -36 -19 -14 -11 -30 200 MB DIV 76 79 54 47 30 18 28 19 2 3 -7 49 31 32 9 16 20 700-850 TADV -3 -13 -7 2 2 0 -1 -13 -10 -2 -11 0 1 10 11 13 10 LAND (KM) 1162 1075 960 881 783 362 109 113 156 99 104 76 180 179 98 24 -146 LAT (DEG N) 15.7 16.4 17.0 17.5 17.9 18.8 19.4 20.3 21.3 22.4 23.6 25.1 26.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 50.9 52.8 54.8 56.5 58.3 62.3 65.6 69.0 73.3 76.8 79.4 81.9 84.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 19 20 19 17 19 18 16 18 19 15 13 14 11 6 5 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 15 30 30 40 53 47 57 47 50 62 67 62 43 39 32 34 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 18 CX,CY: -15/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 654 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 17.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 8. 15. 20. 24. 28. 31. 35. 39. 40. 41. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 7. 8. 10. 10. 9. 9. 8. 7. 6. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 3. -0. 3. 3. 1. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 10. 14. 19. 24. 27. 33. 37. 44. 44. 50. 51. 51. 46. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 15.7 50.9 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132020 THIRTEEN 08/20/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.72 2.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 33.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.22 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.65 2.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.50 1.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 163.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.77 1.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.4 27.5 to 139.6 0.74 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 57.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.40 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.96 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 30% is 5.7 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.8% 19.5% 13.8% 10.2% 9.2% 11.8% 12.9% 29.7% Logistic: 4.6% 17.9% 9.6% 4.9% 2.5% 9.1% 8.9% 20.2% Bayesian: 0.7% 6.9% 2.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.9% 1.9% 8.6% Consensus: 3.7% 14.8% 8.5% 5.1% 3.9% 7.3% 7.9% 19.5% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 7.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132020 THIRTEEN 08/20/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132020 THIRTEEN 08/20/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 34 37 40 44 49 54 57 63 67 74 74 80 81 81 46 18HR AGO 30 29 31 34 37 41 46 51 54 60 64 71 71 77 78 78 43 12HR AGO 30 27 26 29 32 36 41 46 49 55 59 66 66 72 73 73 38 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 23 27 32 37 40 46 50 57 57 63 64 64 29 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT