* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * THIRTEEN AL132020 08/20/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 37 38 41 44 50 52 56 59 61 67 69 72 76 73 V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 37 38 41 44 50 52 56 59 61 67 69 72 76 49 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 34 36 37 38 38 39 41 44 50 58 66 71 75 78 51 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 4 9 15 18 7 14 3 7 2 13 16 14 16 22 25 42 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 4 5 6 2 6 0 8 2 2 -4 0 -4 -3 -1 1 -2 SHEAR DIR 293 241 224 243 264 264 247 273 254 355 306 311 317 299 308 301 306 SST (C) 27.7 27.8 28.0 28.2 28.5 28.6 29.0 29.2 29.1 29.7 30.8 31.4 30.8 30.6 30.6 30.4 30.0 POT. INT. (KT) 136 137 140 143 147 148 155 158 156 166 174 173 171 168 169 171 171 ADJ. POT. INT. 136 137 140 143 147 148 155 157 153 163 174 173 165 149 151 154 149 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.2 -52.9 -53.1 -53.4 -53.2 -53.0 -52.8 -52.5 -52.4 -52.1 -51.8 -51.7 -51.3 -51.2 -51.3 -51.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 9 9 10 10 11 10 11 11 11 10 10 9 10 7 700-500 MB RH 63 62 59 60 61 58 57 59 61 59 61 61 68 66 65 64 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 12 13 13 13 14 13 14 12 12 11 11 14 13 16 18 19 850 MB ENV VOR 40 28 21 24 24 14 14 25 16 -13 -33 -44 -56 -44 -55 -36 -92 200 MB DIV 79 69 70 49 46 9 -2 39 25 18 24 45 41 6 -2 19 7 700-850 TADV -4 -6 -11 -9 0 -8 0 -2 -10 -8 -10 -20 -2 -14 10 5 6 LAND (KM) 1173 1172 1106 987 904 580 209 176 122 123 133 18 70 111 95 91 -155 LAT (DEG N) 15.0 15.8 16.5 17.1 17.6 18.5 19.1 20.1 20.9 21.9 23.4 25.0 26.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 48.9 50.8 52.6 54.5 56.4 60.2 63.9 67.7 71.4 74.9 78.2 81.0 83.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 19 19 19 19 19 18 18 18 17 17 16 14 9 3 4 9 12 HEAT CONTENT 26 18 27 29 43 47 71 64 54 52 80 71 79 45 48 51 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 18 CX,CY: -15/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 657 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 64.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 13.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 8. 15. 20. 24. 28. 31. 35. 39. 40. 42. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 7. 6. 4. 2. 0. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -5. -6. -8. -9. -5. -6. -4. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 8. 11. 14. 20. 22. 26. 29. 31. 37. 39. 43. 46. 43. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 15.0 48.9 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132020 THIRTEEN 08/20/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 5.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.72 2.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 28.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.19 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.52 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.57 1.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 156.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.78 1.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.5 27.5 to 139.6 0.74 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 62.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.43 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 41% is 7.9 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.2% 20.1% 14.1% 10.2% 8.9% 11.7% 13.3% 41.2% Logistic: 8.4% 30.5% 17.1% 8.5% 4.4% 11.9% 13.1% 27.1% Bayesian: 2.4% 16.5% 4.9% 0.6% 0.3% 2.1% 11.1% 18.2% Consensus: 5.7% 22.3% 12.0% 6.4% 4.5% 8.6% 12.5% 28.8% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132020 THIRTEEN 08/20/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132020 THIRTEEN 08/20/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 35 37 38 41 44 50 52 56 59 61 67 69 72 76 49 18HR AGO 30 29 32 34 35 38 41 47 49 53 56 58 64 66 69 73 46 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 29 32 35 41 43 47 50 52 58 60 63 67 40 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 21 24 27 33 35 39 42 44 50 52 55 59 32 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT