* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * THIRTEEN AL132020 08/20/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 39 41 45 47 50 52 55 57 58 61 62 66 67 68 V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 39 41 45 47 50 52 55 57 58 61 61 66 54 37 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 35 37 38 40 40 40 41 43 47 52 58 64 68 59 38 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 1 4 7 11 16 18 9 14 8 9 4 10 11 11 11 19 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 4 4 4 6 2 4 3 -1 1 -1 -4 0 -1 -3 -1 1 SHEAR DIR 3 259 242 227 248 288 252 284 232 314 316 344 323 321 287 300 275 SST (C) 27.6 27.7 27.7 27.9 28.1 28.5 28.7 29.1 29.2 29.4 30.2 30.4 30.8 30.5 30.2 30.0 30.0 POT. INT. (KT) 134 136 136 139 141 147 149 156 158 161 174 174 173 171 170 168 169 ADJ. POT. INT. 134 136 136 139 141 147 147 154 155 157 171 174 173 157 147 142 142 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.1 -53.1 -52.9 -53.2 -53.6 -53.3 -53.2 -52.7 -52.7 -52.2 -52.3 -51.5 -51.9 -51.3 -51.9 -51.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.0 -0.2 -0.2 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 8 9 9 10 10 11 11 11 11 10 8 9 6 9 700-500 MB RH 66 64 60 59 59 59 56 59 59 61 61 62 69 70 70 66 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 11 12 12 13 12 12 10 10 8 6 7 4 6 4 5 850 MB ENV VOR 47 37 22 16 21 8 0 4 11 -16 -25 -72 -55 -74 -61 -68 -70 200 MB DIV 77 74 73 63 46 19 -11 5 7 4 14 10 45 21 32 7 33 700-850 TADV -6 -3 -3 -4 -4 0 -3 -2 -7 -7 -11 -15 -2 -4 3 4 2 LAND (KM) 1191 1196 1218 1120 1015 770 411 210 177 222 169 157 79 165 101 -18 -162 LAT (DEG N) 14.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 47.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 18 19 19 19 19 18 17 17 17 17 17 17 14 8 7 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 35 25 17 25 27 54 47 64 52 62 70 74 89 39 33 37 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 17 CX,CY: -14/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 618 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 17.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 4. 8. 15. 20. 24. 27. 31. 35. 38. 40. 41. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6. 6. 5. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. -1. -2. -5. -7. -10. -13. -13. -16. -14. -16. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 11. 15. 17. 20. 22. 25. 27. 28. 31. 32. 36. 37. 38. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 14.4 47.3 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132020 THIRTEEN 08/20/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 5.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.80 2.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 25.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.17 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.59 2.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.52 1.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 150.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.78 1.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.2 27.5 to 139.6 0.71 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 66.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.45 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 25% is 4.9 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.6% 20.7% 14.7% 10.7% 9.5% 11.7% 13.1% 25.4% Logistic: 9.4% 28.9% 18.5% 9.1% 3.6% 8.2% 8.6% 12.8% Bayesian: 2.8% 13.9% 8.8% 0.8% 0.5% 2.2% 6.4% 4.5% Consensus: 6.2% 21.2% 14.0% 6.9% 4.5% 7.4% 9.4% 14.2% DTOPS: 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132020 THIRTEEN 08/20/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132020 THIRTEEN 08/20/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 33 36 39 41 45 47 50 52 55 57 58 61 61 66 54 37 18HR AGO 30 29 32 35 37 41 43 46 48 51 53 54 57 57 62 50 33 12HR AGO 30 27 26 29 31 35 37 40 42 45 47 48 51 51 56 44 27 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 22 26 28 31 33 36 38 39 42 42 47 35 18 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT