* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESLIE AL132018 10/13/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 61 56 48 40 31 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 65 61 48 36 32 28 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 65 61 49 36 31 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 28 25 17 22 24 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 15 17 21 11 6 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 231 259 264 274 291 305 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 20.8 20.4 18.2 17.3 19.1 28.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 88 85 78 75 79 142 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 83 79 73 71 73 119 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.3 -53.8 -53.7 -53.8 -54.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 1.0 1.2 0.6 0.9 0.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 1 1 1 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 25 31 36 39 44 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 26 25 24 21 14 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 21 37 51 49 14 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 14 0 8 -6 5 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -79 -84 -106 -56 -24 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 461 188 -66 -209 -66 -171 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 37.2 38.3 39.3 40.2 41.0 42.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 14.1 11.2 8.3 6.1 4.0 -0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 30 25 22 18 18 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 65/ 34 CX,CY: 31/ 14 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 468 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL -2. -5. -8. -11. -12. -15. -19. -22. -26. -28. -31. -33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -12. -14. -16. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -10. -9. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -4. -9. -17. -19. -22. -24. -26. -27. -29. -29. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -8. -11. -12. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -9. -17. -25. -34. -43. -52. -56. -59. -62. -63. -65. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 37.2 14.1 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132018 LESLIE 10/13/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.51 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.24 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 157.3 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.59 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.74 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.93 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 346.6 893.2 to -67.1 0.57 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 12.8 28.4 to 141.4 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 4.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.16 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 88.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.12 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 999.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 999.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132018 LESLIE 10/13/2018 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 0( 2) 0( 2) 0( 2) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 65 61 48 36 32 28 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 65 64 51 39 35 31 32 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 65 62 61 49 45 41 42 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 65 59 56 55 51 47 48 19 19 19 19 19 19 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT