* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESLIE AL132018 09/28/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 46 46 46 47 47 44 41 43 48 54 60 68 V (KT) LAND 45 46 46 46 47 47 44 41 43 48 54 60 68 V (KT) LGEM 45 44 45 45 47 50 51 53 57 63 71 81 89 Storm Type SUBT SUBT SUBT SUBT TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 16 28 27 27 32 33 31 23 17 13 18 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -6 -5 -2 0 -4 -1 -2 2 -1 -4 -3 -5 SHEAR DIR 17 15 25 32 21 6 356 329 299 243 228 207 172 SST (C) 26.7 26.8 26.7 26.9 27.0 27.3 27.3 27.4 27.6 27.6 27.5 27.7 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 120 122 121 124 125 127 124 125 128 127 126 131 135 ADJ. POT. INT. 100 102 102 105 106 106 101 102 103 103 103 109 112 200 MB T (C) -54.9 -54.9 -54.7 -54.9 -55.0 -55.7 -56.4 -56.7 -56.3 -55.8 -56.2 -56.1 -56.0 200 MB VXT (C) 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.8 1.4 1.1 1.0 0.6 0.6 1.4 1.2 1.5 1.2 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 6 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 700-500 MB RH 49 51 51 53 54 53 55 56 56 58 60 52 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 33 32 30 29 28 27 26 25 27 30 32 35 38 850 MB ENV VOR 179 164 152 149 157 154 167 168 163 170 165 174 181 200 MB DIV -43 -34 -48 -36 -25 -15 -22 -2 22 29 43 46 21 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 0 0 -1 -3 -1 -1 -5 -2 -1 0 LAND (KM) 1273 1257 1231 1248 1298 1479 1600 1606 1581 1636 1633 1564 1560 LAT (DEG N) 36.4 36.2 36.1 35.7 35.1 33.4 32.3 32.2 32.2 31.7 31.8 32.1 31.7 LONG(DEG W) 46.4 47.5 48.8 50.1 51.3 52.6 52.7 53.1 53.8 53.7 53.5 54.6 55.9 STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 11 11 11 8 3 3 2 2 2 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):255/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 645 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 34.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. -2. -7. -11. -13. -14. -16. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -2. -3. -5. -6. -9. -12. -10. -8. -6. -4. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 10. 11. 12. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. -1. -4. -2. 3. 9. 15. 23. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 36.4 46.4 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132018 LESLIE 09/28/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.51 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.27 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 157.3 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.59 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.9 to -2.9 0.37 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.60 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 216.4 893.2 to -67.1 0.70 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 57.8 28.4 to 141.4 0.26 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -37.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 56.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.44 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132018 LESLIE 09/28/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132018 LESLIE 09/28/2018 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 46 46 46 47 47 44 41 43 48 54 60 68 18HR AGO 45 44 44 44 45 45 42 39 41 46 52 58 66 12HR AGO 45 42 41 41 42 42 39 36 38 43 49 55 63 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 36 36 33 30 32 37 43 49 57 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT