* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESLIE AL132018 09/27/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 67 68 68 68 65 58 52 50 49 48 55 63 V (KT) LAND 65 67 68 68 68 65 58 52 50 49 48 55 63 V (KT) LGEM 65 67 68 68 69 72 74 74 74 73 73 78 86 Storm Type SUBT SUBT SUBT SUBT SUBT SUBT TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 7 6 8 10 17 26 26 26 22 20 15 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -4 -4 -4 -7 -4 -2 -2 -3 0 0 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 79 55 335 337 359 29 38 12 351 338 315 252 210 SST (C) 25.9 25.9 26.2 26.4 26.5 26.8 27.0 27.2 27.5 27.4 27.5 27.5 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 114 113 115 116 117 122 125 126 128 124 126 126 127 ADJ. POT. INT. 97 95 96 95 96 103 107 107 106 101 102 102 102 200 MB T (C) -54.9 -55.2 -54.7 -54.7 -55.0 -55.1 -55.5 -55.9 -56.4 -56.4 -56.6 -56.2 -55.5 200 MB VXT (C) 1.7 2.0 2.2 1.9 1.5 1.2 1.5 0.8 0.7 0.4 0.7 0.6 1.1 TH_E DEV (C) 2 3 3 4 4 5 6 7 8 9 9 9 8 700-500 MB RH 42 46 48 51 53 55 56 56 56 57 58 58 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 44 43 41 39 37 33 30 29 29 29 28 31 37 850 MB ENV VOR 234 216 198 188 188 168 152 155 167 172 162 157 159 200 MB DIV -21 13 -6 -10 -31 -44 -28 -22 -19 -8 -11 25 54 700-850 TADV 6 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 -3 0 1 2 0 LAND (KM) 1429 1333 1296 1303 1307 1250 1296 1445 1603 1671 1657 1612 1612 LAT (DEG N) 37.1 37.4 37.1 36.7 36.4 36.2 35.2 33.7 32.2 31.6 31.7 32.0 31.9 LONG(DEG W) 41.6 42.9 44.2 44.9 45.5 47.7 50.5 52.5 53.2 53.0 53.1 53.5 53.8 STM SPEED (KT) 12 10 9 6 6 11 12 10 6 1 2 2 1 HEAT CONTENT 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 8 4 5 5 5 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 15 CX,CY: -8/ 12 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 258 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -6. -8. -9. -11. -13. -15. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 2. 0. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 5. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -2. -4. -6. -11. -15. -19. -21. -23. -25. -23. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 3. 3. 0. -7. -13. -15. -16. -17. -10. -2. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 37.1 41.6 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132018 LESLIE 09/27/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.62 5.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.6 30.1 to 2.3 0.77 3.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.4 0.0 to 157.3 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.77 2.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.42 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.93 1.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 234.2 893.2 to -67.1 0.69 1.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 30.8 28.4 to 141.4 0.02 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -11.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.09 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 100.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.1% 19.3% 17.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.1% 2.6% 1.5% 0.4% 0.2% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.2% 7.3% 6.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132018 LESLIE 09/27/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132018 LESLIE 09/27/2018 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 3( 5) 3( 8) 2( 10) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 65 67 68 68 68 65 58 52 50 49 48 55 63 18HR AGO 65 64 65 65 65 62 55 49 47 46 45 52 60 12HR AGO 65 62 61 61 61 58 51 45 43 42 41 48 56 6HR AGO 65 59 56 55 55 52 45 39 37 36 35 42 50 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT