* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESLIE AL132018 09/25/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 39 48 59 75 81 85 87 85 82 77 73 V (KT) LAND 30 34 39 48 59 75 81 85 87 85 82 77 73 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 35 41 49 61 62 62 65 69 69 67 65 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SUBT SUBT TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 10 15 28 38 24 9 10 14 20 25 24 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 1 0 -3 4 0 -3 -6 -6 -2 -1 -2 SHEAR DIR 316 261 250 232 218 177 93 3 14 30 24 11 2 SST (C) 27.2 27.2 27.1 27.0 26.6 26.2 26.1 26.4 26.7 26.8 26.9 26.9 26.9 POT. INT. (KT) 126 127 126 125 120 115 113 117 120 120 120 120 120 ADJ. POT. INT. 108 110 109 108 102 96 94 98 101 98 97 98 98 200 MB T (C) -57.9 -57.9 -57.8 -57.5 -56.9 -55.4 -55.2 -54.6 -55.4 -55.8 -56.4 -56.1 -56.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.7 2.0 2.3 1.8 1.7 1.5 0.8 1.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 4 3 3 4 5 5 6 7 8 7 700-500 MB RH 55 51 46 47 45 38 40 47 53 50 49 50 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 22 24 29 36 43 41 39 37 34 33 32 32 850 MB ENV VOR 90 104 135 157 198 230 236 200 180 167 154 145 151 200 MB DIV 44 64 16 1 28 -14 7 -36 -17 0 9 7 10 700-850 TADV 0 -3 0 -8 0 31 10 -1 0 0 -3 -3 0 LAND (KM) 1800 1844 1894 1888 1889 1720 1565 1471 1440 1422 1390 1386 1400 LAT (DEG N) 31.7 31.8 31.8 32.4 33.0 35.0 36.0 35.9 35.2 34.8 34.9 34.7 34.4 LONG(DEG W) 45.2 43.8 42.4 41.2 40.0 39.7 40.9 42.9 45.2 46.9 47.6 48.6 49.5 STM SPEED (KT) 9 12 11 12 10 8 7 9 9 5 3 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 3 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 5 1 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):120/ 8 CX,CY: 7/ -3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 661 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 8.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 13. 14. 14. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 3. 1. -2. -6. -9. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 5. 11. 19. 18. 17. 16. 13. 11. 9. 8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 18. 29. 45. 51. 55. 57. 55. 52. 47. 43. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 31.7 45.2 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132018 LESLIE 09/25/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.56 3.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.35 1.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.8 0.0 to 157.3 0.01 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.27 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.74 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.20 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 153.2 893.2 to -67.1 0.77 1.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 77.5 28.4 to 141.4 0.43 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.28 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 62.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.37 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.6% 11.9% 9.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.3% 3.1% 2.2% 0.5% 0.1% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.2% 5.0% 3.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 2.0% 31.0% 14.0% 5.0% 1.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132018 LESLIE 09/25/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132018 LESLIE 09/25/2018 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 5( 5) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 34 39 48 59 75 81 85 87 85 82 77 73 18HR AGO 30 29 34 43 54 70 76 80 82 80 77 72 68 12HR AGO 30 27 26 35 46 62 68 72 74 72 69 64 60 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 31 47 53 57 59 57 54 49 45 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT