* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOSEPHINE AL112020 08/16/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 28 27 26 25 27 29 32 36 37 38 39 39 40 40 40 42 V (KT) LAND 30 28 27 26 25 27 29 32 36 37 38 39 39 40 40 40 42 V (KT) LGEM 30 28 26 24 23 20 19 19 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 23 30 36 35 27 25 10 15 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 2 6 5 0 0 0 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 253 249 261 271 274 272 272 246 246 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.9 29.1 29.1 29.0 29.0 29.2 29.3 29.2 29.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 150 153 153 151 151 154 155 154 158 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 139 142 140 137 136 137 135 133 136 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.2 -53.1 -53.2 -53.4 -53.5 -53.7 -53.8 -53.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 13 12 12 12 12 11 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 47 46 45 46 47 50 51 53 58 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 5 4 3 2 2 1 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -38 -39 -51 -65 -74 -80 -90 -72 -91 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 12 13 7 3 16 12 23 -9 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 5 1 5 6 5 4 3 5 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 242 300 353 374 398 549 715 856 1044 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.6 21.2 21.8 22.4 23.0 24.6 26.1 27.3 28.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 65.4 66.3 67.1 67.8 68.4 69.2 69.2 68.5 67.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 9 8 8 8 7 8 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 67 79 70 68 63 38 33 33 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 678 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 33.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 8. 14. 19. 23. 26. 29. 31. 33. 34. 35. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -3. -5. -9. -12. -14. -16. -18. -19. -20. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 2. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 10. 10. 10. 12. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 20.6 65.4 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112020 JOSEPHINE 08/16/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 30.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 69.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.46 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 33.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.10 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.9 2.9 to -2.9 0.17 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 255.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.67 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.8 27.5 to 139.6 0.73 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.19 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.99 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.9% 5.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.6% 1.9% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.8% 2.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.6% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112020 JOSEPHINE 08/16/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112020 JOSEPHINE 08/16/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 28 27 26 25 27 29 32 36 37 38 39 39 40 40 40 42 18HR AGO 30 29 28 27 26 28 30 33 37 38 39 40 40 41 41 41 43 12HR AGO 30 27 26 25 24 26 28 31 35 36 37 38 38 39 39 39 41 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 19 21 23 26 30 31 32 33 33 34 34 34 36 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT