* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JERRY AL102019 09/24/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 42 40 39 37 34 30 25 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 45 42 40 39 37 34 30 25 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 45 43 41 39 38 37 35 34 33 31 29 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 6 12 14 16 19 29 24 32 34 32 19 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 3 1 0 0 -1 -1 -1 -4 0 -2 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 287 285 298 280 264 272 278 290 306 317 322 N/A N/A SST (C) 25.4 25.7 26.3 26.7 26.4 25.6 25.3 26.3 26.1 26.8 26.2 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 106 110 116 121 118 111 108 115 113 121 115 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 91 93 99 104 102 96 93 96 94 102 98 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.3 -52.7 -53.0 -53.2 -53.3 -53.2 -53.7 -54.5 -55.0 -55.6 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.5 1.0 0.8 0.3 0.4 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 4 5 4 3 4 4 4 4 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 54 52 50 48 47 44 45 43 39 35 37 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 20 17 15 13 12 10 8 7 7 5 4 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 26 39 52 47 37 18 4 -5 -2 -24 -53 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 23 5 10 6 22 6 39 11 -24 -39 -26 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 5 2 -9 -4 1 0 10 -5 4 -5 -6 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 807 823 845 919 1001 1106 1137 1173 1220 1305 1422 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 30.9 31.4 31.8 32.3 32.7 33.6 34.1 34.6 34.7 34.4 33.9 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 69.1 68.5 67.9 66.8 65.6 63.1 60.3 58.2 57.0 55.2 53.1 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 8 11 11 12 11 7 6 8 9 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 2 9 2 0 0 1 0 7 1 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 10/ 5 CX,CY: 1/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 774 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. -3. -8. -12. -15. -18. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -14. -17. -20. -23. -26. -27. -27. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -5. -6. -8. -11. -15. -20. -26. -32. -36. -37. -39. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 30.9 69.1 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102019 JERRY 09/24/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 4.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.60 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 2.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.02 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.92 3.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.60 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.9 to -2.9 0.40 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 52.9 27.5 to 139.6 0.23 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.20 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 56.1 100.0 to 0.0 0.44 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 281.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.65 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.5% 15.7% 11.9% 9.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 2.4% 2.2% 0.5% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.1% 6.0% 4.7% 3.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.0% 3.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102019 JERRY 09/24/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102019 JERRY 09/24/2019 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 42 40 39 37 34 30 25 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 45 44 42 41 39 36 32 27 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 45 42 41 40 38 35 31 26 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 33 30 26 21 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT