* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JERRY AL102019 09/24/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 47 45 42 41 37 31 27 21 17 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 50 47 45 42 41 37 31 27 21 17 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 50 47 45 43 42 41 39 37 36 34 32 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 6 12 15 19 28 29 28 36 31 28 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 1 0 0 2 -6 2 -4 0 -2 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 291 289 277 289 273 267 281 283 295 305 314 N/A N/A SST (C) 25.7 25.5 25.7 26.4 26.5 25.5 25.1 26.1 25.7 25.9 25.8 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 110 107 110 118 119 110 107 115 110 110 110 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 94 91 94 101 103 95 92 97 92 91 90 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.3 -52.5 -52.8 -53.1 -53.0 -53.5 -53.7 -54.4 -55.1 -55.7 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.1 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 5 5 5 5 3 3 3 4 3 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 54 57 52 50 48 41 38 33 34 31 27 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 23 20 18 16 14 12 9 8 7 7 6 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 21 19 43 55 55 34 9 -4 -4 -28 -45 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 24 28 28 31 26 15 15 18 -8 -48 -38 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 5 4 -13 -9 4 1 3 -4 -3 -14 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 829 813 802 859 926 1062 1059 1092 1138 1185 1238 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 30.6 31.2 31.7 32.3 32.8 33.7 34.6 35.3 35.6 35.6 35.5 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 69.1 68.8 68.5 67.5 66.4 63.8 61.1 58.5 56.5 55.1 54.0 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 8 10 11 12 12 10 7 5 5 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 4 5 0 0 0 0 2 1 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 8 CX,CY: 0/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 786 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 11.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 0. -3. -7. -12. -15. -17. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -2. -5. -6. -10. -16. -20. -23. -24. -28. -29. -29. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -5. -8. -9. -13. -19. -23. -29. -33. -38. -40. -41. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 30.6 69.1 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102019 JERRY 09/24/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 4.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.65 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.01 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.69 2.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.74 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.9 to -2.9 0.63 1.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 46.8 27.5 to 139.6 0.17 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.26 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 56.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.44 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 292.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.63 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.2% 16.3% 12.0% 8.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 2.9% 2.6% 0.3% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.0% 6.4% 4.9% 2.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 4.0% 7.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102019 JERRY 09/24/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102019 JERRY 09/24/2019 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 47 45 42 41 37 31 27 21 17 DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 50 49 47 44 43 39 33 29 23 19 DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 50 47 46 43 42 38 32 28 22 18 DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 39 35 29 25 19 15 DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT