* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JERRY AL102019 09/24/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 49 47 46 45 43 40 39 35 32 25 22 20 V (KT) LAND 50 49 47 46 45 43 40 39 35 32 25 22 20 V (KT) LGEM 50 48 47 46 45 44 44 43 43 42 40 37 36 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 11 5 13 16 18 27 21 30 27 29 16 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -3 -2 -1 0 -2 -1 -2 0 0 3 5 1 SHEAR DIR 249 263 267 258 288 269 280 260 279 296 309 325 307 SST (C) 27.3 27.0 26.9 27.3 27.3 25.8 25.5 26.1 26.3 25.8 26.3 26.3 25.9 POT. INT. (KT) 126 122 122 127 128 113 110 115 117 111 115 116 112 ADJ. POT. INT. 107 103 103 108 110 99 96 99 99 93 96 97 95 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.5 -52.5 -52.6 -52.9 -53.1 -53.3 -53.5 -54.0 -54.4 -55.1 -55.8 -55.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 55 58 61 58 55 52 51 47 47 48 47 44 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 23 23 20 18 16 13 11 10 8 7 5 5 4 850 MB ENV VOR 6 7 18 29 43 47 18 18 12 2 -35 -46 -76 200 MB DIV 16 21 34 27 30 22 21 40 26 -3 -54 -9 -28 700-850 TADV 6 0 3 4 -10 0 0 9 -8 5 -3 0 -2 LAND (KM) 961 930 903 916 937 1116 1157 1177 1236 1300 1327 1398 1516 LAT (DEG N) 29.5 30.1 30.6 31.2 31.8 32.9 33.7 34.6 35.0 35.0 34.8 34.3 33.5 LONG(DEG W) 68.4 68.3 68.1 67.5 66.8 64.2 61.0 58.1 55.4 53.4 51.8 50.3 48.6 STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 6 8 10 13 13 12 10 7 7 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 10 7 6 13 18 0 0 1 6 0 1 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 6 CX,CY: -1/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 688 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 31.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 0. -4. -7. -10. -11. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -2. -3. -5. -9. -14. -18. -22. -24. -29. -31. -32. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -10. -11. -15. -18. -25. -28. -30. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 29.5 68.4 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102019 JERRY 09/24/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 3.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.62 1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.07 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 31.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.17 0.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.74 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.9 to -2.9 0.64 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 56.1 27.5 to 139.6 0.25 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.26 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 62.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.38 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 254.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.67 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.6% 12.3% 8.9% 5.9% 0.0% 9.0% 11.7% 0.0% Logistic: 1.6% 7.5% 4.7% 0.5% 0.1% 0.6% 0.3% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.5% 6.6% 4.5% 2.1% 0.0% 3.2% 4.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.0% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102019 JERRY 09/24/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102019 JERRY 09/24/2019 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 49 47 46 45 43 40 39 35 32 25 22 20 18HR AGO 50 49 47 46 45 43 40 39 35 32 25 22 20 12HR AGO 50 47 46 45 44 42 39 38 34 31 24 21 19 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 39 37 34 33 29 26 19 16 DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT