* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JERRY AL102019 09/24/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 54 54 52 51 48 45 41 39 37 36 35 36 V (KT) LAND 55 54 54 52 51 48 45 41 39 37 36 35 36 V (KT) LGEM 55 54 53 52 50 48 47 45 44 44 45 45 46 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 30 18 11 5 12 17 21 25 21 23 21 16 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 -1 -3 0 0 2 3 -2 3 -2 7 2 3 SHEAR DIR 251 252 310 307 274 307 281 291 279 294 287 293 278 SST (C) 27.8 27.3 26.8 26.8 27.0 26.4 25.9 25.7 25.7 25.4 25.7 26.1 25.7 POT. INT. (KT) 132 127 120 120 124 119 114 112 112 107 110 114 110 ADJ. POT. INT. 112 108 102 102 106 103 99 97 96 90 91 96 94 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.5 -52.6 -52.6 -52.7 -53.2 -53.3 -53.9 -54.1 -54.5 -55.3 -56.1 -56.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.2 0.1 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 4 5 5 5 4 3 3 3 3 4 700-500 MB RH 57 56 57 60 55 53 48 44 39 39 38 38 42 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 23 23 20 19 15 13 10 10 9 10 9 9 850 MB ENV VOR -1 -4 0 6 25 67 35 19 12 -1 -10 -12 -23 200 MB DIV 42 8 21 37 22 31 21 11 19 5 -27 -27 -30 700-850 TADV 1 5 4 6 6 -9 12 9 2 -7 2 -5 -1 LAND (KM) 1013 965 901 893 890 1031 1135 1160 1152 1181 1234 1302 1390 LAT (DEG N) 28.7 29.5 30.2 30.8 31.3 32.6 33.6 34.2 35.5 36.0 35.6 35.1 34.6 LONG(DEG W) 68.3 68.4 68.5 68.1 67.7 65.3 62.3 59.4 56.4 54.2 52.6 50.9 48.9 STM SPEED (KT) 6 8 7 6 9 13 13 13 12 8 7 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 17 10 6 6 9 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 4 CX,CY: -1/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 654 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 29.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -6. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -2. -3. -5. -7. -7. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -6. -11. -15. -18. -20. -20. -22. -22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -3. -4. -7. -10. -14. -16. -18. -19. -20. -19. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 28.7 68.3 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102019 JERRY 09/24/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.54 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.06 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 29.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.22 0.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.87 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.32 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 51.2 27.5 to 139.6 0.21 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.26 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 11.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.89 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 288.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.64 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.8% 11.6% 8.6% 7.0% 6.7% 9.1% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 1.2% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.2% 4.2% 3.1% 2.4% 2.2% 3.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 4.0% 5.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102019 JERRY 09/24/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102019 JERRY 09/24/2019 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 54 54 52 51 48 45 41 39 37 36 35 36 18HR AGO 55 54 54 52 51 48 45 41 39 37 36 35 36 12HR AGO 55 52 51 49 48 45 42 38 36 34 33 32 33 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 44 41 38 34 32 30 29 28 29 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT