* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JERRY AL102019 09/23/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 53 53 52 50 47 41 35 31 29 26 25 22 V (KT) LAND 55 53 53 52 50 47 41 35 31 29 26 25 22 V (KT) LGEM 55 54 52 50 49 45 43 40 38 38 38 39 38 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 31 30 16 10 7 24 20 30 20 23 22 17 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 1 -1 -1 1 3 2 2 -1 -2 -1 8 3 SHEAR DIR 261 259 258 309 321 306 289 291 293 304 309 321 357 SST (C) 28.1 27.6 27.3 27.0 26.7 26.9 25.7 25.2 25.4 25.2 25.6 25.3 25.0 POT. INT. (KT) 136 130 126 122 120 124 112 109 109 106 110 109 107 ADJ. POT. INT. 116 111 107 104 103 107 98 96 94 89 93 94 93 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.3 -52.6 -52.8 -52.7 -53.0 -53.4 -53.8 -54.5 -54.7 -55.6 -56.5 -57.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 1.0 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.0 -0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 5 4 4 3 2 3 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 58 56 56 58 59 53 46 43 36 34 37 37 40 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 22 23 21 20 17 13 11 10 9 8 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR -9 -2 0 -9 -3 36 42 23 16 5 1 -36 -66 200 MB DIV 54 35 13 19 30 30 29 16 16 0 -17 -38 -37 700-850 TADV 17 1 5 1 4 -2 15 4 15 2 9 1 1 LAND (KM) 960 1014 954 920 889 956 1076 1072 1064 1089 1134 1162 1230 LAT (DEG N) 28.2 28.9 29.5 30.1 30.7 32.3 33.6 34.7 36.2 36.8 36.5 36.5 36.9 LONG(DEG W) 68.2 68.4 68.5 68.3 68.2 66.3 63.7 60.4 56.9 54.5 52.7 50.0 46.2 STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 6 6 8 12 14 15 13 8 9 13 15 HEAT CONTENT 22 15 10 7 5 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 5 CX,CY: -1/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 679 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 28.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. -2. -4. -10. -15. -18. -21. -23. -25. -27. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -2. -3. -5. -8. -14. -20. -24. -26. -29. -30. -33. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 28.2 68.2 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102019 JERRY 09/23/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.40 1.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.08 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.51 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.87 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.27 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 53.0 27.5 to 139.6 0.23 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.28 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.96 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 284.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.64 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.0% 13.1% 9.7% 8.0% 7.8% 9.6% 8.2% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 0.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.5% 4.6% 3.4% 2.7% 2.6% 3.2% 2.7% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.0% 3.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102019 JERRY 09/23/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102019 JERRY 09/23/2019 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 53 53 52 50 47 41 35 31 29 26 25 22 18HR AGO 55 54 54 53 51 48 42 36 32 30 27 26 23 12HR AGO 55 52 51 50 48 45 39 33 29 27 24 23 20 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 43 40 34 28 24 22 19 18 15 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT