* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JERRY AL102019 09/23/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 53 52 51 50 47 43 38 37 37 34 32 25 V (KT) LAND 55 53 52 51 50 47 43 38 37 37 34 32 25 V (KT) LGEM 55 54 53 50 48 44 41 40 39 38 36 34 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 37 33 28 19 12 18 25 32 31 27 20 16 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 4 3 0 -1 2 4 5 1 -1 0 7 14 SHEAR DIR 272 261 255 269 317 286 309 283 299 305 314 306 345 SST (C) 28.4 27.9 27.5 27.1 26.3 27.0 26.0 25.8 25.6 25.2 25.3 25.2 25.0 POT. INT. (KT) 141 134 129 124 115 124 115 115 112 106 107 109 109 ADJ. POT. INT. 121 115 110 106 98 106 100 101 98 89 90 96 98 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.4 -52.4 -52.8 -52.8 -52.8 -53.2 -53.4 -54.1 -54.3 -54.8 -55.8 -56.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.7 0.9 0.4 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.6 -0.1 0.2 -0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 5 5 4 3 2 2 2 3 2 700-500 MB RH 56 56 52 51 55 54 48 43 37 27 25 27 32 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 20 22 23 22 18 15 13 14 15 14 11 7 850 MB ENV VOR -17 -13 -1 -9 -11 19 36 33 26 17 1 0 -49 200 MB DIV 73 56 39 10 15 20 34 9 11 -7 -19 -32 -62 700-850 TADV 9 11 0 6 5 7 11 24 19 7 0 1 2 LAND (KM) 923 1003 1005 934 865 886 1017 1029 1056 1068 1089 1119 1261 LAT (DEG N) 27.8 28.6 29.3 30.0 30.6 31.8 33.2 34.6 36.1 36.8 36.9 36.8 37.0 LONG(DEG W) 67.9 68.0 68.0 68.3 68.6 67.4 65.2 62.2 57.6 55.0 53.7 50.6 45.2 STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 7 7 6 10 13 17 16 8 9 17 22 HEAT CONTENT 26 18 12 8 2 13 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 6 CX,CY: -2/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 693 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 34.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 38.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -7. -11. -14. -15. -15. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. -3. -7. -12. -11. -11. -14. -18. -25. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -4. -5. -8. -12. -17. -18. -18. -21. -23. -30. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 27.8 67.9 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102019 JERRY 09/23/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 25.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.15 0.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.09 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 34.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.07 0.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.87 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.6 2.9 to -2.9 0.05 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 54.9 27.5 to 139.6 0.24 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.32 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 7.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.92 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 322.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.60 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 5.1% 4.0% 0.0% 0.0% 6.8% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 1.8% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 2.3% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.0% 5.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102019 JERRY 09/23/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102019 JERRY 09/23/2019 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 53 52 51 50 47 43 38 37 37 34 32 25 18HR AGO 55 54 53 52 51 48 44 39 38 38 35 33 26 12HR AGO 55 52 51 50 49 46 42 37 36 36 33 31 24 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 44 41 37 32 31 31 28 26 19 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT