* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JERRY AL102019 09/23/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 53 51 49 49 49 45 41 35 32 29 29 24 V (KT) LAND 55 53 51 49 49 49 45 41 35 32 29 29 24 V (KT) LGEM 55 54 52 50 48 44 40 38 36 33 31 30 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 41 37 31 33 20 10 24 24 38 26 24 16 29 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 6 1 0 0 5 3 2 0 0 -1 8 SHEAR DIR 277 273 254 253 265 330 307 292 291 303 306 296 310 SST (C) 28.8 28.4 28.1 27.7 26.9 26.1 26.7 25.7 25.3 25.4 25.9 25.2 25.3 POT. INT. (KT) 147 141 137 132 122 114 122 113 110 111 114 107 108 ADJ. POT. INT. 127 120 117 113 104 97 105 99 97 97 98 91 91 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.0 -52.3 -52.6 -52.8 -52.7 -52.9 -53.1 -53.6 -54.5 -54.8 -55.7 -56.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.9 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 -0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 6 4 4 4 3 2 2 1 2 700-500 MB RH 54 55 55 50 47 56 49 41 42 38 33 38 37 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 20 21 20 21 20 17 13 11 11 9 8 7 850 MB ENV VOR -27 -20 -10 3 -7 6 32 77 15 5 -11 -8 -6 200 MB DIV 63 65 56 38 19 26 45 23 -1 -4 -5 14 -1 700-850 TADV 13 6 8 1 6 9 -3 17 10 17 12 13 3 LAND (KM) 898 956 1017 965 887 830 918 1020 1068 1095 1001 979 1086 LAT (DEG N) 27.5 28.1 28.7 29.5 30.3 31.5 32.8 34.3 35.0 36.2 37.7 38.3 38.1 LONG(DEG W) 67.6 67.9 68.1 68.4 68.6 68.3 66.5 63.5 59.7 55.9 52.5 49.5 46.8 STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 7 8 7 8 12 15 16 16 14 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 31 26 20 14 7 1 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 8 CX,CY: -2/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 714 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 38.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 39.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -6. -9. -13. -17. -18. -19. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -4. -9. -13. -15. -18. -20. -22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -6. -6. -6. -10. -14. -20. -23. -26. -26. -31. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 27.5 67.6 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102019 JERRY 09/23/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 32.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.13 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 38.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.87 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.06 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 61.3 27.5 to 139.6 0.30 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 48.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.36 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 10.2 100.0 to 0.0 0.90 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 347.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.58 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 3.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 5.5% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.9% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 4.0% 3.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102019 JERRY 09/23/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102019 JERRY 09/23/2019 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 53 51 49 49 49 45 41 35 32 29 29 24 18HR AGO 55 54 52 50 50 50 46 42 36 33 30 30 25 12HR AGO 55 52 51 49 49 49 45 41 35 32 29 29 24 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 45 45 41 37 31 28 25 25 20 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT