* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JERRY AL102019 09/23/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 54 54 52 52 53 52 48 43 38 36 33 32 V (KT) LAND 55 54 54 52 52 53 52 48 43 38 36 33 32 V (KT) LGEM 55 55 54 52 50 46 42 39 38 36 34 33 34 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 35 41 34 33 32 11 15 19 29 32 22 19 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 5 5 1 0 2 4 5 -1 2 -2 3 SHEAR DIR 277 274 264 250 246 291 283 302 273 295 298 296 275 SST (C) 28.9 28.7 28.4 27.9 27.6 26.8 26.8 25.9 25.2 25.3 25.3 25.5 23.5 POT. INT. (KT) 149 145 141 134 130 121 121 114 109 109 108 110 96 ADJ. POT. INT. 130 125 121 115 111 102 103 100 96 94 93 94 84 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.0 -53.0 -52.4 -52.6 -52.7 -52.5 -53.2 -53.4 -54.4 -54.7 -55.0 -55.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.1 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 3 2 2 1 1 700-500 MB RH 54 53 53 52 48 50 52 43 41 39 33 33 39 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 20 21 21 22 23 19 16 12 10 10 8 8 850 MB ENV VOR -24 -27 -13 -4 2 0 31 69 50 30 26 -6 7 200 MB DIV 76 62 64 67 58 15 32 53 12 4 3 2 25 700-850 TADV 14 11 7 7 4 2 7 -4 6 11 4 -4 -11 LAND (KM) 870 934 999 1038 960 872 878 1000 980 997 1000 938 931 LAT (DEG N) 27.1 27.8 28.4 29.1 29.8 31.2 32.5 33.7 35.3 36.6 37.5 38.3 39.0 LONG(DEG W) 67.1 67.3 67.4 67.8 68.1 68.0 67.1 65.2 61.3 57.8 55.0 52.0 48.6 STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 8 7 7 9 14 17 14 12 13 14 HEAT CONTENT 31 29 24 18 12 8 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 9 CX,CY: -1/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 716 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 32.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -11. -14. -16. -16. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 1. -4. -9. -12. -14. -18. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -3. -3. -2. -3. -7. -12. -17. -19. -22. -23. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 27.1 67.1 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102019 JERRY 09/23/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 35.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 22.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.15 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 32.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.12 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.87 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.10 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 65.2 27.5 to 139.6 0.34 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 65.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.44 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 8.9 100.0 to 0.0 0.91 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 338.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.59 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.8% 4.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 0.7% 0.3% 0.6% 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.9% 1.9% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.0% 4.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102019 JERRY 09/23/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102019 JERRY 09/23/2019 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 54 54 52 52 53 52 48 43 38 36 33 32 18HR AGO 55 54 54 52 52 53 52 48 43 38 36 33 32 12HR AGO 55 52 51 49 49 50 49 45 40 35 33 30 29 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 45 46 45 41 36 31 29 26 25 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT