* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JERRY AL102019 09/22/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 55 54 54 53 53 53 51 45 38 36 29 24 V (KT) LAND 55 55 54 54 53 53 53 51 45 38 36 29 24 V (KT) LGEM 55 55 54 54 52 48 44 42 40 38 36 33 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 28 35 40 36 34 23 11 24 30 39 30 43 34 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 3 4 -2 0 5 4 -1 8 -2 -1 SHEAR DIR 288 279 273 262 249 247 290 302 274 284 283 306 266 SST (C) 29.0 28.9 28.7 28.3 28.0 27.3 26.8 26.0 25.0 25.8 23.2 19.5 18.0 POT. INT. (KT) 151 149 145 139 135 127 122 116 109 116 97 81 76 ADJ. POT. INT. 133 130 125 118 115 108 106 102 97 104 87 74 71 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.2 -53.1 -52.9 -52.5 -52.9 -52.7 -53.1 -53.4 -54.3 -54.9 -55.2 -56.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 3 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 59 54 53 53 52 46 56 48 39 39 42 46 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 18 19 20 20 22 20 18 15 11 11 10 9 850 MB ENV VOR -24 -17 -27 -18 -10 -5 12 54 93 72 92 93 85 200 MB DIV 90 79 56 55 59 28 35 72 41 8 15 -15 27 700-850 TADV 26 10 9 7 9 8 5 -3 16 8 38 37 21 LAND (KM) 795 860 930 992 1042 917 859 964 863 784 576 563 762 LAT (DEG N) 26.3 27.1 27.8 28.4 29.0 30.4 32.0 34.1 36.3 38.8 41.6 44.0 46.2 LONG(DEG W) 66.9 67.3 67.6 67.7 67.8 68.1 67.6 65.1 61.7 57.2 51.8 47.0 43.0 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 7 6 7 8 11 16 20 23 23 20 18 HEAT CONTENT 27 31 29 24 18 10 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 9 CX,CY: -2/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 710 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -2. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -5. -6. -9. -9. -11. -14. -18. -21. -25. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. -1. -6. -11. -12. -14. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -4. -10. -17. -19. -26. -31. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 26.3 66.9 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102019 JERRY 09/22/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 34.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 25.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.17 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.42 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.87 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.09 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 69.2 27.5 to 139.6 0.37 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 67.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.45 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 10.2 100.0 to 0.0 0.90 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 319.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.61 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.9% 8.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.9% 1.3% 0.6% 1.0% 0.3% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.4% 3.3% 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 3.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 4.0% 4.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102019 JERRY 09/22/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102019 JERRY 09/22/2019 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 55 54 54 53 53 53 51 45 38 36 29 24 18HR AGO 55 54 53 53 52 52 52 50 44 37 35 28 23 12HR AGO 55 52 51 51 50 50 50 48 42 35 33 26 21 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 44 44 44 42 36 29 27 20 15 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT