* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JERRY AL102019 09/22/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 55 56 55 55 56 58 57 51 46 40 36 31 V (KT) LAND 55 55 56 55 55 56 58 57 51 46 40 36 31 V (KT) LGEM 55 55 55 55 55 53 49 45 43 41 39 37 35 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 24 24 31 36 36 31 13 19 22 34 31 33 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -1 1 2 5 -1 2 0 3 1 5 -5 SHEAR DIR 299 289 281 279 269 242 274 267 301 268 286 294 307 SST (C) 29.3 29.0 28.9 28.9 28.6 27.8 27.2 26.6 26.1 25.1 24.8 17.0 20.3 POT. INT. (KT) 156 151 149 149 144 133 126 121 118 110 108 75 83 ADJ. POT. INT. 138 131 129 128 124 113 108 106 105 99 96 70 75 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.9 -53.1 -53.1 -53.1 -52.6 -52.9 -52.9 -53.5 -53.8 -55.3 -56.5 -57.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.8 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 4 4 3 2 1 0 700-500 MB RH 62 61 57 54 54 51 52 57 50 46 45 45 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 15 17 18 19 22 22 19 15 12 10 9 7 850 MB ENV VOR -23 -25 -25 -30 -24 0 -6 38 71 94 88 58 51 200 MB DIV 42 77 80 61 39 69 17 41 87 42 36 3 31 700-850 TADV 18 15 8 2 3 4 4 11 19 11 26 15 41 LAND (KM) 709 767 829 890 954 1011 899 939 978 878 733 615 803 LAT (DEG N) 25.3 26.0 26.7 27.4 28.0 29.5 30.9 32.7 34.9 37.4 40.1 42.1 43.4 LONG(DEG W) 66.6 66.9 67.1 67.3 67.5 67.7 67.9 66.3 63.1 58.9 53.7 48.8 44.0 STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 7 7 7 9 14 19 23 23 20 19 HEAT CONTENT 28 26 29 31 28 15 11 7 1 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 9 CX,CY: -2/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 686 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 59.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 0. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -11. -14. -17. -20. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 5. 6. 3. -3. -8. -11. -14. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 3. 2. -4. -9. -15. -19. -24. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 25.3 66.6 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102019 JERRY 09/22/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 30.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 28.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.19 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.37 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.87 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.8 2.9 to -2.9 0.01 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 75.0 27.5 to 139.6 0.42 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 59.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.42 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 294.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.63 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 9.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 2.3% 0.8% 0.8% 0.4% 1.3% 0.6% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.3% 3.9% 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% DTOPS: 3.0% 4.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 3.0% 3.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102019 JERRY 09/22/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102019 JERRY 09/22/2019 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 55 56 55 55 56 58 57 51 46 40 36 31 18HR AGO 55 54 55 54 54 55 57 56 50 45 39 35 30 12HR AGO 55 52 51 50 50 51 53 52 46 41 35 31 26 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 45 46 48 47 41 36 30 26 21 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT