* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JERRY AL102019 09/22/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 55 56 56 56 57 59 60 57 52 44 44 44 V (KT) LAND 55 55 56 56 56 57 59 60 57 52 44 44 44 V (KT) LGEM 55 55 56 56 57 57 54 50 47 44 41 39 38 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 22 22 30 33 27 21 11 29 28 41 21 32 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 0 -1 3 5 2 0 2 5 0 4 -4 SHEAR DIR 311 304 286 280 281 250 251 276 296 293 281 282 277 SST (C) 29.5 29.1 28.8 29.0 29.0 28.5 27.7 27.6 25.9 25.5 25.0 25.6 22.7 POT. INT. (KT) 160 153 147 150 150 143 132 132 115 112 108 112 92 ADJ. POT. INT. 145 135 129 130 129 122 112 113 101 98 94 96 80 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.1 -53.0 -53.2 -53.3 -52.7 -53.0 -53.0 -53.2 -53.6 -54.1 -55.2 -56.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.8 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 5 6 6 5 4 4 3 2 1 0 700-500 MB RH 65 64 62 58 55 54 52 61 50 43 38 34 37 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 14 16 17 19 21 19 18 15 11 12 14 850 MB ENV VOR -14 -18 -21 -20 -29 -16 -1 8 42 72 51 15 9 200 MB DIV 27 33 66 86 66 60 30 45 53 65 7 7 32 700-850 TADV 18 16 16 6 0 15 6 12 8 23 20 17 9 LAND (KM) 632 675 728 791 856 995 952 905 1040 954 849 751 592 LAT (DEG N) 24.5 25.2 25.9 26.6 27.2 28.5 30.0 31.6 33.3 35.4 37.8 39.9 41.4 LONG(DEG W) 66.6 67.1 67.6 67.8 68.0 68.1 68.0 67.3 64.9 61.8 58.6 55.5 52.4 STM SPEED (KT) 10 8 8 7 7 7 8 11 15 17 17 15 14 HEAT CONTENT 30 27 28 33 35 25 14 38 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 12 CX,CY: -6/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 722 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -8. -11. -13. -17. -19. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 4. 2. -2. -8. -8. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 2. -3. -11. -11. -11. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 24.5 66.6 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102019 JERRY 09/22/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 25.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.18 0.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 30.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.20 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.40 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.87 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.10 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 78.8 27.5 to 139.6 0.46 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 55.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.40 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 272.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.66 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.8% 12.3% 8.6% 7.0% 6.1% 8.2% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.1% 4.8% 1.6% 1.0% 0.7% 2.2% 1.6% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.8% 5.7% 3.4% 2.7% 2.3% 3.5% 0.5% 0.1% DTOPS: 2.0% 6.0% 4.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 5.0% 4.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102019 JERRY 09/22/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102019 JERRY 09/22/2019 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 55 56 56 56 57 59 60 57 52 44 44 44 18HR AGO 55 54 55 55 55 56 58 59 56 51 43 43 43 12HR AGO 55 52 51 51 51 52 54 55 52 47 39 39 39 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 45 46 48 49 46 41 33 33 33 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT