* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JERRY AL102019 09/22/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 55 56 57 58 58 59 62 60 62 58 59 53 V (KT) LAND 55 55 56 57 58 58 59 62 60 62 58 59 53 V (KT) LGEM 55 55 55 56 56 56 54 51 50 50 51 51 47 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 22 25 24 29 33 34 18 23 25 31 24 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 0 0 -1 1 1 -1 1 4 4 0 2 SHEAR DIR 317 310 293 287 285 271 251 285 281 287 275 293 323 SST (C) 29.5 29.5 28.9 28.8 29.0 28.8 28.0 28.0 26.0 26.0 25.8 26.0 21.3 POT. INT. (KT) 161 160 149 147 150 147 136 136 115 116 114 116 85 ADJ. POT. INT. 149 145 132 127 130 127 115 116 101 101 99 99 76 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.8 -53.1 -53.1 -53.2 -53.3 -53.0 -53.3 -53.3 -53.5 -53.4 -53.9 -55.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.7 0.3 1.0 0.6 1.7 0.9 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 2 1 700-500 MB RH 68 65 62 61 59 56 52 56 58 47 33 30 24 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 14 15 16 18 21 22 21 24 22 24 22 850 MB ENV VOR -10 -17 -23 -24 -30 -34 -24 -11 25 70 123 116 88 200 MB DIV 42 39 42 77 80 57 58 47 64 76 46 1 37 700-850 TADV 14 18 18 18 6 4 2 8 21 33 45 9 35 LAND (KM) 578 644 706 759 816 962 1025 978 1019 994 888 765 581 LAT (DEG N) 23.7 24.6 25.5 26.1 26.7 28.1 29.6 30.9 32.9 34.8 36.9 39.1 41.5 LONG(DEG W) 66.0 66.6 67.1 67.3 67.5 67.6 67.4 66.9 65.3 62.8 59.6 56.9 54.5 STM SPEED (KT) 12 10 8 6 7 8 7 9 13 15 16 15 15 HEAT CONTENT 34 30 26 26 31 29 16 21 0 0 0 1 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 13 CX,CY: -6/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 740 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 5. 5. 4. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -11. -12. -14. -16. -18. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 7. 6. 9. 7. 8. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 7. 5. 7. 3. 4. -2. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 23.7 66.0 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102019 JERRY 09/22/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.23 0.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 29.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.19 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.58 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.87 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.15 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 81.4 27.5 to 139.6 0.48 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 56.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.40 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 260.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.67 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.9% 15.2% 10.5% 8.2% 7.7% 9.1% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 2.5% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.5% 0.5% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.9% 5.9% 3.8% 2.8% 2.6% 3.2% 0.2% 0.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.0% 4.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102019 JERRY 09/22/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102019 JERRY 09/22/2019 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 55 56 57 58 58 59 62 60 62 58 59 53 18HR AGO 55 54 55 56 57 57 58 61 59 61 57 58 52 12HR AGO 55 52 51 52 53 53 54 57 55 57 53 54 48 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 46 46 47 50 48 50 46 47 41 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT