* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JERRY AL102019 09/21/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 55 55 55 56 56 59 61 64 64 63 64 59 V (KT) LAND 55 55 55 55 56 56 59 61 64 64 63 64 59 V (KT) LGEM 55 55 55 56 56 57 56 53 50 49 49 49 48 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 16 20 24 24 33 30 26 18 25 30 39 36 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 0 0 0 0 1 5 1 0 4 6 1 2 SHEAR DIR 328 308 303 298 290 283 259 260 277 301 283 277 316 SST (C) 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.2 28.8 29.0 28.4 28.0 27.0 25.6 25.1 25.0 26.1 POT. INT. (KT) 161 161 160 154 147 150 141 136 125 112 108 106 115 ADJ. POT. INT. 150 148 144 136 128 130 121 116 108 98 94 91 96 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.5 -52.8 -53.1 -53.1 -53.7 -53.3 -53.2 -53.1 -53.4 -52.9 -53.3 -54.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.8 1.2 1.4 1.0 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 7 6 6 6 5 5 5 4 4 3 2 700-500 MB RH 65 66 67 62 61 55 57 52 58 52 39 28 17 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 13 13 14 15 18 19 20 21 21 23 23 850 MB ENV VOR -15 -6 -10 -16 -20 -36 -27 -13 7 33 119 143 82 200 MB DIV 44 34 36 37 72 61 38 19 72 99 85 18 -6 700-850 TADV 12 13 12 16 15 6 9 6 17 21 27 34 12 LAND (KM) 448 544 597 660 728 871 1021 1020 1036 1090 952 860 725 LAT (DEG N) 22.5 23.4 24.3 25.1 25.8 27.2 28.6 30.0 31.5 33.5 35.7 37.7 39.5 LONG(DEG W) 65.5 66.2 66.9 67.1 67.3 67.4 67.4 67.1 65.8 63.6 60.9 58.6 56.9 STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 9 8 7 7 7 8 11 14 15 12 11 HEAT CONTENT 48 37 33 28 26 33 23 15 15 0 0 0 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 12 CX,CY: -8/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 700 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 32.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -10. -11. -13. -15. -19. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 5. 7. 7. 6. 9. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 6. 9. 9. 8. 9. 4. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 22.5 65.5 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102019 JERRY 09/21/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.35 0.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 34.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.23 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 32.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.13 0.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.87 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.6 2.9 to -2.9 0.06 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 86.2 27.5 to 139.6 0.52 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 44.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.34 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 253.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.68 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 11.6% 7.9% 0.0% 0.0% 8.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 2.2% 0.7% 0.3% 0.2% 0.6% 0.9% 0.5% Bayesian: 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.4% 4.6% 2.9% 0.1% 0.1% 2.9% 0.3% 0.2% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.0% 4.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102019 JERRY 09/21/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102019 JERRY 09/21/2019 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 55 55 55 56 56 59 61 64 64 63 64 59 18HR AGO 55 54 54 54 55 55 58 60 63 63 62 63 58 12HR AGO 55 52 51 51 52 52 55 57 60 60 59 60 55 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 46 46 49 51 54 54 53 54 49 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT