* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JERRY AL102019 09/21/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 55 55 57 58 62 62 61 65 64 65 62 63 V (KT) LAND 55 55 55 57 58 62 62 61 65 64 65 62 63 V (KT) LGEM 55 54 53 54 55 56 58 57 54 53 55 55 53 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 17 15 18 23 29 35 33 15 23 30 37 37 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 4 1 1 1 -4 0 3 0 2 0 1 -2 SHEAR DIR 325 323 309 306 297 293 281 260 249 279 293 279 288 SST (C) 29.6 29.5 29.5 29.6 29.2 28.8 29.0 28.2 28.0 26.7 25.8 25.2 25.6 POT. INT. (KT) 163 161 160 162 155 147 150 138 136 122 113 106 108 ADJ. POT. INT. 152 149 147 148 138 127 129 116 116 107 99 91 90 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.3 -52.4 -52.8 -53.1 -53.2 -53.5 -53.1 -53.1 -52.7 -53.2 -52.8 -53.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.7 1.2 1.2 1.4 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 8 7 6 6 5 5 5 5 4 4 3 700-500 MB RH 63 66 69 67 63 60 62 58 61 59 48 33 18 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 13 13 14 15 18 19 20 23 23 25 25 28 850 MB ENV VOR -8 -15 -1 -6 -12 -28 -31 -12 10 26 70 150 155 200 MB DIV 6 31 29 35 41 87 65 39 49 90 74 51 -10 700-850 TADV 12 13 10 12 13 9 7 3 14 25 24 21 13 LAND (KM) 397 435 500 590 665 780 930 1085 1073 1112 1078 947 912 LAT (DEG N) 21.7 22.4 23.0 24.0 25.0 26.3 27.7 29.1 29.9 31.7 34.1 35.9 36.8 LONG(DEG W) 64.3 65.2 66.2 66.5 66.9 67.3 67.2 67.0 66.5 64.8 62.4 60.5 59.3 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 10 10 9 7 7 6 8 13 14 10 6 HEAT CONTENT 61 48 43 33 28 28 32 18 15 7 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 12 CX,CY: -7/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 649 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 12.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -10. -11. -11. -14. -16. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. 0. 0. 2. 3. 4. 7. 7. 9. 8. 12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 2. 3. 7. 7. 6. 10. 9. 10. 7. 8. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 21.7 64.3 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102019 JERRY 09/21/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 4.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.6 30.1 to 2.3 0.42 1.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 42.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.28 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.71 2.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.87 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.28 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 91.6 27.5 to 139.6 0.57 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.27 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 243.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.69 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.3% 18.7% 12.9% 11.3% 8.8% 10.9% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.4% 7.2% 3.6% 2.4% 1.7% 3.1% 2.7% 1.0% Bayesian: 0.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.5% 8.8% 5.5% 4.6% 3.5% 4.7% 0.9% 0.3% DTOPS: 1.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 4.0% 4.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102019 JERRY 09/21/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102019 JERRY 09/21/2019 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 55 55 57 58 62 62 61 65 64 65 62 63 18HR AGO 55 54 54 56 57 61 61 60 64 63 64 61 62 12HR AGO 55 52 51 53 54 58 58 57 61 60 61 58 59 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 46 50 50 49 53 52 53 50 51 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT