* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JERRY AL102019 09/21/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 53 54 56 58 61 62 62 60 65 66 71 73 V (KT) LAND 55 53 54 56 58 61 62 62 60 65 66 71 73 V (KT) LGEM 55 51 49 49 49 51 53 54 53 52 54 57 59 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 21 19 15 9 14 16 31 35 32 9 26 23 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 5 4 1 2 4 0 0 1 1 -1 0 2 SHEAR DIR 335 332 336 306 298 296 284 275 269 265 288 293 250 SST (C) 29.6 29.5 29.5 29.6 29.6 28.9 28.9 29.0 28.5 28.0 26.8 25.9 25.4 POT. INT. (KT) 163 161 161 163 162 149 149 150 143 137 123 114 110 ADJ. POT. INT. 156 151 150 150 146 132 129 128 123 118 106 99 95 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.4 -52.4 -52.4 -52.6 -52.8 -53.0 -53.1 -52.8 -52.6 -53.1 -53.3 -53.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.9 1.0 0.9 1.4 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 9 8 7 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 4 700-500 MB RH 60 63 67 68 69 65 61 63 59 57 50 44 40 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 14 13 13 13 15 15 17 19 22 23 27 29 850 MB ENV VOR -4 -3 0 8 7 0 -26 -18 -3 34 65 123 151 200 MB DIV 2 3 27 25 33 62 41 48 36 75 30 71 47 700-850 TADV 3 10 9 6 5 10 8 14 5 16 17 20 12 LAND (KM) 378 374 412 472 480 593 729 878 1017 999 1038 1067 955 LAT (DEG N) 21.0 21.6 22.2 22.9 23.5 24.9 26.2 27.5 28.7 30.2 32.0 33.8 35.6 LONG(DEG W) 63.5 64.6 65.7 66.7 67.7 68.6 68.9 68.5 68.1 67.2 65.5 63.5 61.1 STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 12 11 9 8 7 6 8 10 12 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 71 66 56 52 46 34 36 29 21 15 14 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 15 CX,CY: -10/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 718 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 17.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 10. 10. 10. 10. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -6. -10. -9. -11. -12. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -5. -5. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 2. 3. 7. 7. 12. 14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -1. 1. 3. 6. 7. 7. 5. 10. 11. 16. 18. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 21.0 63.5 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102019 JERRY 09/21/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.42 3.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.52 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 58.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.38 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.88 3.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.87 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.9 to -2.9 0.36 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 95.9 27.5 to 139.6 0.61 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.22 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 259.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.67 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 4.9 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.1% 19.8% 13.7% 12.0% 10.3% 12.2% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.3% 7.7% 5.0% 4.1% 3.2% 3.0% 1.8% 0.5% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.8% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.5% 9.4% 6.4% 5.5% 4.5% 5.1% 0.6% 0.2% DTOPS: 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 4.0% 5.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102019 JERRY 09/21/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102019 JERRY 09/21/2019 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 53 54 56 58 61 62 62 60 65 66 71 73 18HR AGO 55 54 55 57 59 62 63 63 61 66 67 72 74 12HR AGO 55 52 51 53 55 58 59 59 57 62 63 68 70 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 47 50 51 51 49 54 55 60 62 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT