* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JERRY AL102019 09/21/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 69 69 70 71 73 73 71 72 75 78 87 85 V (KT) LAND 70 69 69 70 71 73 73 71 72 75 78 87 85 V (KT) LGEM 70 68 67 67 67 69 71 72 72 69 69 71 70 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 20 17 14 9 18 20 33 29 13 22 13 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 5 4 1 2 -1 1 3 0 0 -1 -4 SHEAR DIR 340 342 340 348 323 306 288 285 264 293 272 268 235 SST (C) 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.5 29.5 28.8 29.0 29.0 28.2 28.0 26.0 25.9 POT. INT. (KT) 162 163 163 161 160 159 147 150 151 139 137 115 114 ADJ. POT. INT. 155 155 153 150 148 142 129 129 130 120 119 100 100 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.5 -52.5 -52.3 -52.4 -52.9 -53.0 -53.3 -52.9 -53.2 -53.0 -53.4 -53.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.7 0.2 0.8 0.8 1.0 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 9 10 9 7 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 57 61 65 66 69 67 63 62 61 56 58 52 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 13 12 12 13 13 15 18 21 22 29 26 850 MB ENV VOR 1 -3 -8 -2 5 -1 0 -21 4 26 57 121 139 200 MB DIV 26 1 3 19 25 46 72 59 57 35 57 25 78 700-850 TADV -4 3 9 8 5 0 5 12 4 5 14 11 -1 LAND (KM) 380 329 319 369 444 510 611 751 891 1034 1002 1079 1069 LAT (DEG N) 19.9 20.5 21.1 21.8 22.5 23.9 25.1 26.4 27.6 29.1 30.9 32.7 34.3 LONG(DEG W) 62.5 63.6 64.7 65.6 66.6 67.9 68.8 68.9 68.4 67.8 66.6 64.7 61.9 STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 11 11 11 8 7 6 7 9 11 13 14 HEAT CONTENT 78 74 74 65 60 39 36 36 27 18 22 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 705 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 15.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. -1. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -6. -8. -7. -6. -5. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. 3. 5. 7. 15. 11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. 0. 1. 4. 3. 1. 2. 5. 8. 17. 15. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 19.9 62.5 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102019 JERRY 09/21/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.48 4.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.51 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 70.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.46 1.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.88 3.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.87 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.9 to -2.9 0.35 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 82.2 27.5 to 139.6 0.49 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.21 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 352.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.57 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 5.4 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.1% 20.4% 14.6% 13.0% 11.6% 11.8% 10.4% 0.0% Logistic: 5.1% 6.8% 4.7% 3.9% 3.1% 3.1% 2.3% 0.4% Bayesian: 0.7% 1.5% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.6% 9.6% 6.6% 5.7% 4.9% 5.0% 4.2% 0.1% DTOPS: 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.0% 3.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102019 JERRY 09/21/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102019 JERRY 09/21/2019 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 4 3( 7) 4( 11) 4( 14) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 2 1( 3) 1( 4) 0( 4) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 70 69 69 70 71 73 73 71 72 75 78 87 85 18HR AGO 70 69 69 70 71 73 73 71 72 75 78 87 85 12HR AGO 70 67 66 67 68 70 70 68 69 72 75 84 82 6HR AGO 70 64 61 60 61 63 63 61 62 65 68 77 75 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT