* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JERRY AL102019 09/20/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 68 68 67 68 72 72 70 67 69 76 74 71 V (KT) LAND 70 68 68 67 68 72 72 70 67 69 76 74 71 V (KT) LGEM 70 66 64 64 64 67 68 66 64 62 59 57 53 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 18 17 17 11 15 19 35 31 30 17 35 29 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -3 0 3 4 0 0 0 2 1 1 1 1 SHEAR DIR 339 339 339 341 344 292 297 279 266 270 265 269 272 SST (C) 29.6 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.6 29.1 28.8 29.0 28.6 28.1 26.9 26.0 POT. INT. (KT) 164 162 163 163 161 162 152 147 150 145 138 125 115 ADJ. POT. INT. 161 156 155 154 150 147 135 129 129 125 120 110 100 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.3 -52.4 -52.5 -52.4 -52.8 -52.9 -53.3 -53.2 -53.1 -52.8 -53.6 -53.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 12 11 10 10 9 7 7 6 6 6 5 5 4 700-500 MB RH 53 56 61 63 66 67 66 58 55 47 49 47 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 14 13 12 13 12 12 13 15 20 19 19 850 MB ENV VOR 14 14 6 -2 0 7 1 -23 -7 -8 18 32 71 200 MB DIV 10 7 4 8 19 18 54 31 50 11 49 24 88 700-850 TADV 0 -2 1 5 8 5 9 3 3 2 11 8 16 LAND (KM) 484 380 314 317 367 461 539 705 849 991 1050 1077 1027 LAT (DEG N) 19.2 19.8 20.4 21.1 21.8 23.2 24.4 26.0 27.3 28.5 29.9 31.9 34.4 LONG(DEG W) 61.2 62.5 63.7 64.7 65.8 67.5 68.6 69.1 69.0 68.3 66.8 65.1 63.2 STM SPEED (KT) 15 13 12 12 11 9 8 8 6 8 11 14 14 HEAT CONTENT 60 80 75 74 66 52 39 37 34 22 15 12 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 16 CX,CY: -14/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 722 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -4. -4. -3. -4. -5. -8. -10. -9. -10. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -4. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -1. 4. 2. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -2. -3. -2. 2. 2. 0. -3. -1. 6. 4. 1. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 19.2 61.2 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102019 JERRY 09/20/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.42 3.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.50 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 71.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.47 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.54 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.87 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.9 to -2.9 0.37 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 85.1 27.5 to 139.6 0.51 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.18 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 406.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.51 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 4.3 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.4% 15.7% 11.2% 10.6% 8.8% 10.3% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.5% 2.7% 1.5% 0.8% 0.7% 1.0% 1.1% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.3% 6.4% 4.4% 3.8% 3.2% 3.8% 0.4% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102019 JERRY 09/20/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102019 JERRY 09/20/2019 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 4 3( 7) 3( 10) 4( 13) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 2 3( 5) 4( 9) 1( 10) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 70 68 68 67 68 72 72 70 67 69 76 74 71 18HR AGO 70 69 69 68 69 73 73 71 68 70 77 75 72 12HR AGO 70 67 66 65 66 70 70 68 65 67 74 72 69 6HR AGO 70 64 61 60 61 65 65 63 60 62 69 67 64 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT